Points
67Points expected by the market
47.56Gap
+19.44Yield
+35.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.31 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 14 | +2.65 | +16.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 38 | +15.75 | +84.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 14 | +2.36 | −8.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.31 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 14 | +2.65 | +16.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 25 | +10.06 | +75.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.97 | +277.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 13 | +5.68 | +102.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 11 | +0.39 | −29.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Cruzeiro · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| M2 | Fortaleza · Home6 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.53 | −1.22 |
| M3 | Bahia · Away13 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.85 |
| M4 | Gremio · Home16 Apr 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.73 | +0.87 |
| M5 | Juventude · Away20 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.71 |
| M6 | Atletico-MG · Home26 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.52 |
| M7 | Bragantino · Away5 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.88 | −0.36 |
| M8 | Corinthians · Home10 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.70 | +1.34 |
| M9 | Internacional · Away19 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.21 | +1.55 |
| M10 | Sao Paulo · Away24 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.20 | +3.75 |
| M11 | Sport Recife · Home1 Jun 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.19 | +4.94 |
| M12 | Palmeiras · Away16 Jul 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.45 | +5.39 |
| M13 | Santos · Home19 Jul 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +7.02 |
| M14 | Ceara · Away23 Jul 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.94 | +8.96 |
| M15 | Vitoria · Home26 Jul 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.94 | +8.03 |
| M16 | Vasco · Home2 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.19 | +9.22 |
| M17 | Flamengo RJ · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.47 | +8.75 |
| M18 | Cruzeiro · Home19 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | +8.43 |
| M19 | Fortaleza · Away24 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +10.15 |
| M20 | Bahia · Home31 Aug 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.47 | +11.62 |
| M21 | Gremio · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +13.46 |
| M22 | Botafogo RJ · Away17 Sep 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.16 | +13.62 |
| M23 | Juventude · Home21 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.92 | +14.54 |
| M24 | Atletico-MG · Away28 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.09 | +13.45 |
| M25 | Bragantino · Home1 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.87 | +12.58 |
| M26 | Corinthians · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.02 | +11.57 |
| M27 | Fluminense · Home9 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | +13.24 |
| M28 | Internacional · Home16 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.83 | +15.07 |
| M29 | Sao Paulo · Home19 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.58 | +16.65 |
| M30 | Sport Recife · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | +18.25 |
| M31 | Botafogo RJ · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.50 | +17.75 |
| M32 | Fluminense · Away6 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.87 | +16.88 |
| M33 | Palmeiras · Home9 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +18.85 |
| M34 | Santos · Away20 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.07 | +18.93 |
| M35 | Ceara · Home24 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.14 | +20.06 |
| M36 | Vitoria · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.23 | +18.84 |
| M37 | Vasco · Away2 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.91 | +20.75 |
| M38 | Flamengo RJ · Home6 Dec 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.31 | +19.44 |
| Total | 67 | +19.44 | |||