Points
76Points expected by the market
67.60Gap
+8.40Yield
+23.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 10 | 26 | +3.14 | +7.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 25 | −1.31 | −10.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 19 | +3.35 | +38.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 6 | +3.22 | +185.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 10 | 26 | +3.14 | +7.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 12 | −1.82 | −25.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.59 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.18 | +381.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 13 | +0.51 | +3.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 19 | +4.94 | +52.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.04 | +87.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Botafogo RJ · Home30 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| M2 | Sport Recife · Away6 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.54 | +0.57 |
| M3 | Corinthians · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +1.67 |
| M4 | Internacional · Away16 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.68 | +3.35 |
| M5 | Fortaleza · Away20 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.29 | +4.64 |
| M6 | Bahia · Home27 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.07 | +2.57 |
| M7 | Vasco · Away4 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.96 | +3.53 |
| M8 | Sao Paulo · Home11 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.10 | +4.63 |
| M9 | Bragantino · Away18 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.32 | +5.95 |
| M10 | Flamengo RJ · Home25 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.59 | +4.37 |
| M11 | Cruzeiro · Away1 Jun 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.41 | +2.96 |
| M12 | Mirassol · Home16 Jul 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.23 | +1.72 |
| M13 | Atletico-MG · Home20 Jul 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.06 | +2.78 |
| M14 | Fluminense · Away23 Jul 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.64 | +4.42 |
| M15 | Gremio · Home27 Jul 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.78 | +5.20 |
| M16 | Vitoria · Away3 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.43 | +4.77 |
| M17 | Ceara · Home10 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.75 | +5.52 |
| M18 | Botafogo RJ · Away18 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.62 | +7.14 |
| M19 | Sport Recife · Home25 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.64 | +7.78 |
| M20 | Corinthians · Away31 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.61 | +7.17 |
| M21 | Internacional · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.83 | +8.00 |
| M22 | Fortaleza · Home21 Sep 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.78 | +8.78 |
| M23 | Bahia · Away28 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.74 | +7.03 |
| M24 | Vasco · Home1 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.69 | +7.72 |
| M25 | Sao Paulo · Away5 Oct 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.47 | +9.19 |
| M26 | Juventude · Home11 Oct 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.53 | +9.72 |
| M27 | Bragantino · Home15 Oct 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +2.18 | +11.90 |
| M28 | Flamengo RJ · Away19 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.93 | +10.97 |
| M29 | Cruzeiro · Home26 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.95 | +10.01 |
| M30 | Juventude · Away2 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.98 | +10.99 |
| M31 | Santos · Home7 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.69 | +11.68 |
| M32 | Mirassol · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.69 | +10.00 |
| M33 | Santos · Away16 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.40 | +8.60 |
| M34 | Vitoria · Home19 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.31 | +7.28 |
| M35 | Fluminense · Home23 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.08 | +6.20 |
| M36 | Gremio · Away26 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.19 | +5.01 |
| M37 | Atletico-MG · Away4 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +6.43 |
| M38 | Ceara · Away7 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +8.40 |
| Total | 76 | +8.40 | |||