Points
47Points expected by the market
52.19Gap
−5.19Yield
−13.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 9 | +2.17 | +34.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 7 | −9.38 | −82.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 19 | +0.27 | −5.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 12 | +1.76 | +15.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 9 | +2.17 | +34.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 4 | −10.40 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 14 | +3.69 | +39.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.07 | +336.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.02 | +62.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 5 | −3.42 | −51.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 9 | −0.31 | −13.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Vasco · Away30 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −1.16 |
| M2 | Bahia · Home7 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.66 | −1.82 |
| M3 | Fluminense · Away13 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.83 | −2.65 |
| M4 | Atletico-MG · Home17 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −1.12 |
| M5 | Sao Paulo · Away20 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −2.26 |
| M6 | Bragantino · Home28 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | −3.87 |
| M7 | Gremio · Away4 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.14 | −5.00 |
| M8 | Ceara · Home13 May 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.50 | −5.50 |
| M9 | Corinthians · Away18 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.01 | −6.52 |
| M10 | Vitoria · Away25 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.89 | −4.62 |
| M11 | Botafogo RJ · Home1 Jun 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.66 | −6.28 |
| M12 | Fortaleza · Away12 Jun 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.87 | −4.42 |
| M13 | Flamengo RJ · Home17 Jul 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.07 | −2.35 |
| M14 | Mirassol · Away19 Jul 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −3.67 |
| M15 | Internacional · Home24 Jul 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.49 | −5.16 |
| M16 | Sport Recife · Away26 Jul 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.32 | −5.48 |
| M17 | Juventude · Home5 Aug 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.77 | −4.72 |
| M18 | Cruzeiro · Away10 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.30 | −2.41 |
| M19 | Vasco · Home17 Aug 2025 | L 0-6 | 0 | −1.80 | −4.22 |
| M20 | Bahia · Away24 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.78 | −5.00 |
| M21 | Fluminense · Home31 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.48 | −5.48 |
| M22 | Atletico-MG · Away14 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.03 | −5.44 |
| M23 | Sao Paulo · Home22 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | −4.01 |
| M24 | Bragantino · Away28 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.14 | −4.16 |
| M25 | Gremio · Home2 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.89 | −5.05 |
| M26 | Ceara · Away6 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −6.26 |
| M27 | Corinthians · Home16 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.51 | −4.75 |
| M28 | Vitoria · Home21 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.05 | −6.80 |
| M29 | Botafogo RJ · Away26 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.21 | −6.59 |
| M30 | Fortaleza · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.93 | −7.52 |
| M31 | Palmeiras · Away7 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.50 | −8.02 |
| M32 | Flamengo RJ · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.51 | −8.53 |
| M33 | Palmeiras · Home16 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.69 | −6.84 |
| M34 | Mirassol · Home20 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.80 | −7.64 |
| M35 | Internacional · Away25 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.03 | −7.61 |
| M36 | Sport Recife · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.68 | −6.93 |
| M37 | Juventude · Away3 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.02 | −5.90 |
| M38 | Cruzeiro · Home7 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.72 | −5.19 |
| Total | 47 | −5.19 | |||