Points
51Points expected by the market
53.84Gap
−2.84Yield
−18.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 30 | −1.33 | −1.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 16 | +3.41 | +42.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 5 | −4.92 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 27 | −0.77 | −0.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 6 | +1.90 | +61.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.07 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.56 | −8.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 10 | +1.51 | +34.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 4 | −4.99 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sport Recife · Home29 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| M2 | Atletico-MG · Away6 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.86 |
| M3 | Cruzeiro · Home13 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.81 | −1.68 |
| M4 | Botafogo RJ · Away16 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.13 | −1.55 |
| M5 | Santos · Home20 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.46 | −0.09 |
| M6 | Ceara · Away26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.20 |
| M7 | Fortaleza · Home3 May 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.83 | −1.04 |
| M8 | Palmeiras · Away11 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.82 | −1.85 |
| M9 | Gremio · Home18 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.00 | −0.85 |
| M10 | Mirassol · Home24 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.93 | −2.78 |
| M11 | Bahia · Away31 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.88 | −3.66 |
| M12 | Vasco · Home13 Jun 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.83 | −5.49 |
| M13 | Flamengo RJ · Away12 Jul 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.58 | −6.07 |
| M14 | Bragantino · Away17 Jul 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.17 | −6.24 |
| M15 | Corinthians · Home20 Jul 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.37 | −4.87 |
| M16 | Juventude · Away24 Jul 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.18 | −3.69 |
| M17 | Fluminense · Home27 Jul 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.32 | −2.37 |
| M18 | Internacional · Away4 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | −0.59 |
| M19 | Vitoria · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.08 | +0.49 |
| M20 | Sport Recife · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.47 |
| M21 | Atletico-MG · Home25 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +1.58 |
| M22 | Cruzeiro · Away31 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | +0.64 |
| M23 | Botafogo RJ · Home14 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +2.03 |
| M24 | Santos · Away22 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.12 | +0.90 |
| M25 | Ceara · Home30 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.97 | −1.07 |
| M26 | Fortaleza · Away2 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.69 | +0.63 |
| M27 | Palmeiras · Home5 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −0.51 |
| M28 | Gremio · Away16 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.74 | −2.26 |
| M29 | Mirassol · Away19 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.27 | −3.53 |
| M30 | Bahia · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.19 | −2.34 |
| M31 | Vasco · Away2 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.88 | −0.47 |
| M32 | Flamengo RJ · Home6 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.40 |
| M33 | Bragantino · Home9 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.95 | −2.35 |
| M34 | Corinthians · Away20 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −3.49 |
| M35 | Juventude · Home23 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.00 | −2.49 |
| M36 | Fluminense · Away27 Nov 2025 | L 0-6 | 0 | −0.66 | −3.15 |
| M37 | Internacional · Home3 Dec 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.58 | −1.57 |
| M38 | Vitoria · Away7 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.27 | −2.84 |
| Total | 51 | −2.84 | |||