Points
49Points expected by the market
44.96Gap
+4.04Yield
+1.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.64 | +40.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 21 | −0.68 | −26.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 13 | +1.23 | +34.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 9 | +1.84 | −2.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.64 | +40.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 20 | −0.07 | −20.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.90 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.01 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.61 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 12 | +3.13 | +73.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 9 | +2.85 | +11.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Corinthians · Away28 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.83 | +1.83 |
| M2 | Fluminense · Home5 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.62 | +1.21 |
| M3 | Vasco · Away12 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +3.03 |
| M4 | Vitoria · Home11 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.92 | +2.12 |
| M5 | Internacional · Away15 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.06 | +4.17 |
| M6 | Bragantino · Home18 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +5.22 |
| M7 | Remo · Away22 Mar 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.45 | +3.77 |
| M8 | Athletico-PR · Home2 Apr 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.16 | +4.93 |
| M9 | Palmeiras · Home5 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | +3.53 |
| M10 | Mirassol · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.84 | +5.38 |
| M11 | Flamengo RJ · Away19 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.63 | +4.75 |
| M12 | Santos · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.99 | +3.76 |
| M13 | Sao Paulo · Away3 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.05 | +3.71 |
| M14 | Cruzeiro · Home10 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.71 | +2.00 |
| M15 | Gremio · Home17 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.94 | +1.07 |
| M16 | Coritiba · Away26 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −0.25 |
| M17 | Botafogo RJ · Home30 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.32 | +1.07 |
| M18 | Chapecoense-SC · Home17 Jul 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.79 | +1.86 |
| M19 | Atletico-MG · Away21 Jul 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.05 | +1.90 |
| M20 | Corinthians · Home26 Jul 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.50 | +1.40 |
| M21 | Fluminense · Away30 Jul 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.17 | +1.57 |
| M22 | Vasco · Home9 Aug 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.67 | +0.90 |
| M23 | Chapecoense-SC · Away16 Aug 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.29 |
| M24 | Vitoria · Away23 Aug 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.65 | +1.94 |
| M25 | Internacional · Home30 Aug 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.17 | +3.11 |
| M26 | Bragantino · Away5 Sep 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.00 | +5.11 |
| M27 | Remo · Home15 Sep 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.85 | +5.96 |
| M28 | Athletico-PR · Away20 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | +4.72 |
| M29 | Palmeiras · Away9 Oct 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.74 | +3.98 |
| M30 | Mirassol · Home11 Oct 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.07 | +5.05 |
| M31 | Flamengo RJ · Home18 Oct 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.01 | +4.04 |
| Total | 49 | +4.04 | |||