Points
33Points expected by the market
44.63Gap
−11.63Yield
−41.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.29 | −26.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 13 | −4.54 | −21.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 16 | −4.00 | −41.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 1 | −1.80 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.29 | −26.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 13 | −4.54 | −21.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 3 | −2.63 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 13 | −1.37 | −20.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 1 | −1.80 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bahia · Home28 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | −1.55 |
| M2 | Bragantino · Home12 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −0.31 |
| M3 | Athletico-PR · Away19 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +1.41 |
| M4 | Cruzeiro · Away25 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.18 | +1.59 |
| M5 | Coritiba · Home12 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.97 | −0.39 |
| M6 | Santos · Away15 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.65 |
| M7 | Chapecoense-SC · Away20 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.54 | −1.19 |
| M8 | Flamengo RJ · Home22 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −1.34 |
| M9 | Fluminense · Away2 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.88 | −2.22 |
| M10 | Internacional · Home5 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.60 | −3.83 |
| M11 | Palmeiras · Home12 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.36 | −4.18 |
| M12 | Vitoria · Away19 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.30 | −4.48 |
| M13 | Vasco · Home26 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.41 | −3.07 |
| M14 | Mirassol · Away4 May 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.28 | −4.35 |
| M15 | Sao Paulo · Home10 May 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.33 | −3.02 |
| M16 | Botafogo RJ · Away17 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −4.34 |
| M17 | Atletico-MG · Home24 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.17 | −3.17 |
| M18 | Gremio · Away30 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.53 | −1.64 |
| M19 | Remo · Home23 Jul 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.89 | −0.75 |
| M20 | Bahia · Away26 Jul 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.96 |
| M21 | Athletico-PR · Home30 Jul 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.57 | −1.52 |
| M22 | Bragantino · Away9 Aug 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.88 | +0.35 |
| M23 | Cruzeiro · Home16 Aug 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.75 | −1.39 |
| M24 | Coritiba · Away23 Aug 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −2.76 |
| M25 | Santos · Home30 Aug 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.78 | −4.54 |
| M26 | Chapecoense-SC · Home6 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.17 | −6.72 |
| M27 | Flamengo RJ · Away13 Sep 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.39 | −7.10 |
| M28 | Fluminense · Home20 Sep 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.60 | −8.70 |
| M29 | Internacional · Away7 Oct 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.22 | −9.92 |
| M30 | Palmeiras · Away11 Oct 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.71 | −10.63 |
| M31 | Vitoria · Home20 Oct 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.00 | −11.63 |
| Total | 33 | −11.63 | |||