Points
45Points expected by the market
41.46Gap
+3.54Yield
+6.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.29 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 16 | +0.08 | +6.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 14 | −0.71 | +3.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 14 | +5.46 | +20.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.29 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 16 | +0.08 | +6.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 5 | −0.96 | −38.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.08 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 9 | +0.25 | +26.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 13 | +5.38 | +34.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Chapecoense-SC · Away28 Jan 2026 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.42 | −1.42 |
| M2 | Sao Paulo · Home4 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | −1.98 |
| M3 | Athletico-PR · Away12 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −2.99 |
| M4 | Vasco · Home26 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.34 | −1.65 |
| M5 | Mirassol · Away11 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.12 | −1.52 |
| M6 | Corinthians · Home15 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | −1.95 |
| M7 | Internacional · Home19 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.62 | −3.57 |
| M8 | Cruzeiro · Away22 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.19 | −3.39 |
| M9 | Remo · Home2 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.03 | −2.36 |
| M10 | Flamengo RJ · Away5 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.51 | −2.87 |
| M11 | Atletico-MG · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | −1.44 |
| M12 | Fluminense · Home19 Apr 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.55 | −2.99 |
| M13 | Bahia · Away25 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.23 | −2.76 |
| M14 | Palmeiras · Away2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.29 | −2.47 |
| M15 | Bragantino · Home10 May 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.40 | −1.07 |
| M16 | Coritiba · Home17 May 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −2.04 | −3.11 |
| M17 | Gremio · Away23 May 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.12 | −4.23 |
| M18 | Vitoria · Home31 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.05 | −3.18 |
| M19 | Botafogo RJ · Away16 Jul 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −4.34 |
| M20 | Chapecoense-SC · Home25 Jul 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.29 | −5.63 |
| M21 | Athletico-PR · Home9 Aug 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.64 | −7.27 |
| M22 | Vasco · Away16 Aug 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.02 | −5.25 |
| M23 | Mirassol · Home23 Aug 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.86 | −6.12 |
| M24 | Corinthians · Away30 Aug 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.07 | −4.05 |
| M25 | Internacional · Away6 Sep 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.99 | −2.06 |
| M26 | Cruzeiro · Home13 Sep 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.58 | −0.48 |
| M27 | Remo · Away19 Sep 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | +1.02 |
| M28 | Sao Paulo · Away3 Oct 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.90 | +2.92 |
| M29 | Flamengo RJ · Home8 Oct 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.08 | +3.00 |
| M30 | Atletico-MG · Away11 Oct 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | +1.69 |
| M31 | Fluminense · Away18 Oct 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.85 | +3.54 |
| Total | 45 | +3.54 | |||