Points
43Points expected by the market
38.46Gap
+4.54Yield
+47.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 12 | +5.31 | +101.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 22 | −0.86 | −17.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 9 | +0.09 | +125.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 12 | +5.31 | +101.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 14 | −0.34 | −24.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.21 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 8 | −0.51 | −5.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 9 | +1.29 | +170.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Freiburg · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.00 | +2.00 |
| M2 | Bayern Munich · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.46 | +1.54 |
| M3 | St Pauli · Away14 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | +0.44 |
| M4 | Mainz · Home20 Sep 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.36 | −0.92 |
| M5 | Heidenheim · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.45 | −2.38 |
| M6 | Wolfsburg · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −0.78 |
| M7 | FC Koln · Away18 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.85 |
| M8 | RB Leipzig · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 0-6 | 0 | −1.12 | −1.97 |
| M9 | Dortmund · Home31 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.74 | −2.72 |
| M10 | Stuttgart · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.71 | −3.43 |
| M11 | Hamburg · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.56 | −1.87 |
| M12 | Hoffenheim · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.88 | −2.74 |
| M13 | Leverkusen · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.89 | −0.86 |
| M14 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −1.80 |
| M15 | Werder Bremen · Home20 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.55 | −2.35 |
| M16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away11 Jan 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.00 | −3.36 |
| M17 | Union Berlin · Home15 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −3.74 |
| M18 | Freiburg · Home18 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.38 | −4.13 |
| M19 | Bayern Munich · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.73 | −1.40 |
| M20 | St Pauli · Home31 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | −0.05 |
| M21 | Mainz · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −1.06 |
| M22 | Heidenheim · Home15 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +0.18 |
| M23 | Wolfsburg · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.84 | +2.01 |
| M24 | FC Koln · Home27 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.42 | +3.43 |
| M25 | RB Leipzig · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.54 | +2.89 |
| M26 | Dortmund · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.74 | +2.15 |
| M27 | Stuttgart · Home22 Mar 2026 | L 2-5 | 0 | −1.09 | +1.07 |
| M28 | Hamburg · Away4 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.81 |
| M29 | Hoffenheim · Home10 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.75 |
| M30 | Leverkusen · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.40 | +3.16 |
| M31 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | +2.71 |
| M32 | Werder Bremen · Away2 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.95 | +4.66 |
| M33 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home9 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.29 | +5.95 |
| M34 | Union Berlin · Away16 May 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.41 | +4.54 |
| Total | 43 | +4.54 | |||