Points
89Points expected by the market
80.48Gap
+8.52Yield
+7.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 28 | 73 | +4.18 | +1.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 16 | +4.34 | +37.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 17 | 44 | +1.04 | −2.1% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 11 | 29 | +3.14 | +6.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 16 | +4.34 | +37.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | RB Leipzig · Home22 Aug 2025 | W 6-0 | 3 | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| M2 | Augsburg · Away30 Aug 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.62 | +1.18 |
| M3 | Hamburg · Home13 Sep 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.26 | +1.45 |
| M4 | Hoffenheim · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.76 | +2.20 |
| M5 | Werder Bremen · Home26 Sep 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.33 | +2.54 |
| M6 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away4 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +3.29 |
| M7 | Dortmund · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.73 | +4.02 |
| M8 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.58 | +4.60 |
| M9 | Leverkusen · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.60 | +5.20 |
| M10 | Union Berlin · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.48 | +3.73 |
| M11 | Freiburg · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 6-2 | 3 | +0.44 | +4.16 |
| M12 | St Pauli · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.34 | +4.50 |
| M13 | Stuttgart · Away6 Dec 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.01 | +5.51 |
| M14 | Mainz · Home14 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.70 | +3.80 |
| M15 | Heidenheim · Away21 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.45 | +4.25 |
| M16 | Wolfsburg · Home11 Jan 2026 | W 8-1 | 3 | +0.37 | +4.62 |
| M17 | FC Koln · Away14 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.57 | +5.19 |
| M18 | RB Leipzig · Away17 Jan 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.12 | +6.31 |
| M19 | Augsburg · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.63 | +3.69 |
| M20 | Hamburg · Away31 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.37 | +2.31 |
| M21 | Hoffenheim · Home8 Feb 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.55 | +2.87 |
| M22 | Werder Bremen · Away14 Feb 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.68 | +3.55 |
| M23 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home21 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.32 | +3.87 |
| M24 | Dortmund · Away28 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.10 | +4.96 |
| M25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home6 Mar 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.53 | +5.50 |
| M26 | Leverkusen · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.03 | +4.47 |
| M27 | Union Berlin · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.40 | +4.87 |
| M28 | Freiburg · Away4 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.92 | +5.80 |
| M29 | St Pauli · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.68 | +6.48 |
| M30 | Stuttgart · Home19 Apr 2026 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.88 | +7.36 |
| M31 | Mainz · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.21 | +8.57 |
| M32 | Heidenheim · Home2 May 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.38 | +7.19 |
| M33 | Wolfsburg · Away9 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.89 | +8.09 |
| M34 | FC Koln · Home16 May 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.43 | +8.52 |
| Total | 89 | +8.52 | |||