Points
38Points expected by the market
41.36Gap
−3.36Yield
−29.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 14 | +0.24 | −0.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 17 | −2.96 | −50.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 7 | −0.64 | −19.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 11 | −1.15 | −16.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 7 | −2.20 | −66.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 6 | +3.69 | +167.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.39 | +109.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 10 | −0.76 | −38.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 1 | −4.33 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Hamburg · Home24 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| M2 | Stuttgart · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.78 | −1.52 |
| M3 | Werder Bremen · Home14 Sep 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.60 | −3.12 |
| M4 | Leverkusen · Away21 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.30 | −2.82 |
| M5 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 4-6 | 0 | −1.23 | −4.06 |
| M6 | Freiburg · Home5 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.37 | −4.43 |
| M7 | Union Berlin · Away17 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.17 | −5.60 |
| M8 | Bayern Munich · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.44 | −6.04 |
| M9 | St Pauli · Away1 Nov 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.78 | −4.26 |
| M10 | FC Koln · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −2.91 |
| M11 | Heidenheim · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.39 | −1.52 |
| M12 | RB Leipzig · Home28 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.26 | −1.78 |
| M13 | Mainz · Away5 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | −0.16 |
| M14 | Wolfsburg · Home13 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.67 | −1.84 |
| M15 | Dortmund · Away19 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −2.52 |
| M16 | Augsburg · Home11 Jan 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.26 | −1.26 |
| M17 | Hoffenheim · Away14 Jan 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.02 | −2.28 |
| M18 | Hamburg · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.28 | −2.56 |
| M19 | Stuttgart · Home25 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.24 | −3.80 |
| M20 | Werder Bremen · Away31 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.15 | −3.95 |
| M21 | Leverkusen · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −4.02 |
| M22 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away14 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.12 | −5.14 |
| M23 | Freiburg · Away22 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.07 | −6.21 |
| M24 | Union Berlin · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.51 | −4.70 |
| M25 | Bayern Munich · Away6 Mar 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.40 | −5.10 |
| M26 | St Pauli · Home13 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −3.85 |
| M27 | FC Koln · Away21 Mar 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.22 | −4.07 |
| M28 | Heidenheim · Home4 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.00 | −5.07 |
| M29 | RB Leipzig · Away11 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.67 | −5.74 |
| M30 | Mainz · Home19 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.54 | −6.28 |
| M31 | Wolfsburg · Away25 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.16 | −6.44 |
| M32 | Dortmund · Home3 May 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.98 | −4.46 |
| M33 | Augsburg · Away9 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.05 | −5.51 |
| M34 | Hoffenheim · Home16 May 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +2.15 | −3.36 |
| Total | 38 | −3.36 | |||