Points
73Points expected by the market
60.87Gap
+12.13Yield
+8.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 8 | 24 | +6.08 | +38.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 19 | 39 | +4.06 | −2.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 10 | +3.44 | +47.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.44 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 8 | 24 | +6.08 | +38.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 17 | +1.74 | −0.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.88 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 22 | +2.32 | −3.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 10 | +3.44 | +47.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.55 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | St Pauli · Away23 Aug 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| M2 | Union Berlin · Home31 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.80 | +0.02 |
| M3 | Heidenheim · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.99 | +1.01 |
| M4 | Wolfsburg · Home21 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.94 | +1.95 |
| M5 | Mainz · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.34 | +3.29 |
| M6 | RB Leipzig · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.90 | +2.39 |
| M7 | Bayern Munich · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.55 | +1.83 |
| M8 | FC Koln · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +2.59 |
| M9 | Augsburg · Away31 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.96 | +3.55 |
| M10 | Hamburg · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.76 | +2.78 |
| M11 | Stuttgart · Home22 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.83 | +1.95 |
| M12 | Leverkusen · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +3.55 |
| M13 | Hoffenheim · Home7 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.03 | +4.57 |
| M14 | Freiburg · Away14 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | +3.88 |
| M15 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home19 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.88 | +4.77 |
| M16 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away9 Jan 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.63 | +4.13 |
| M17 | Werder Bremen · Home13 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.79 | +4.92 |
| M18 | St Pauli · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.64 | +5.57 |
| M19 | Union Berlin · Away24 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +7.02 |
| M20 | Heidenheim · Home1 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.60 | +7.62 |
| M21 | Wolfsburg · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.08 | +8.70 |
| M22 | Mainz · Home13 Feb 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +9.75 |
| M23 | RB Leipzig · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.09 | +9.66 |
| M24 | Bayern Munich · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.88 | +8.78 |
| M25 | FC Koln · Away7 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.17 | +9.95 |
| M26 | Augsburg · Home14 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.95 | +10.90 |
| M27 | Hamburg · Home21 Mar 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.80 | +11.71 |
| M28 | Stuttgart · Away4 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.69 | +13.40 |
| M29 | Leverkusen · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.62 | +11.78 |
| M30 | Hoffenheim · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.22 | +10.56 |
| M31 | Freiburg · Home26 Apr 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.81 | +11.37 |
| M32 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away3 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.74 | +9.64 |
| M33 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home8 May 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.12 | +10.76 |
| M34 | Werder Bremen · Away16 May 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.37 | +12.13 |
| Total | 73 | +12.13 | |||