Points
32Points expected by the market
40.34Gap
−8.34Yield
−45.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −0.27 | −17.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 16 | −5.00 | −54.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 8 | −3.07 | −44.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −0.27 | −17.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 11 | −1.11 | −19.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 0 | −2.40 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 5 | −3.89 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 8 | −0.67 | −27.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Mainz · Away24 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.97 | +1.97 |
| M2 | Freiburg · Home31 Aug 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +3.58 |
| M3 | Wolfsburg · Away13 Sep 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.01 | +3.57 |
| M4 | RB Leipzig · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.01 | +2.56 |
| M5 | Stuttgart · Home28 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | +1.18 |
| M6 | Hoffenheim · Away3 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.96 | +3.14 |
| M7 | Augsburg · Home18 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | +2.46 |
| M8 | Dortmund · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.57 | +1.89 |
| M9 | Hamburg · Home2 Nov 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.57 | +3.46 |
| M10 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.10 | +2.36 |
| M11 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.31 | +1.06 |
| M12 | Werder Bremen · Away29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.86 |
| M13 | St Pauli · Home6 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.17 |
| M14 | Leverkusen · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −0.75 |
| M15 | Union Berlin · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.41 | −2.16 |
| M16 | Heidenheim · Away10 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.41 | −2.57 |
| M17 | Bayern Munich · Home14 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.43 | −3.00 |
| M18 | Mainz · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.37 | −1.63 |
| M19 | Freiburg · Away25 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | −2.68 |
| M20 | Wolfsburg · Home30 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −1.33 |
| M21 | RB Leipzig · Home8 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | −2.43 |
| M22 | Stuttgart · Away14 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.70 | −3.13 |
| M23 | Hoffenheim · Home21 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.08 | −3.21 |
| M24 | Augsburg · Away27 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.15 | −4.35 |
| M25 | Dortmund · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −5.29 |
| M26 | Hamburg · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | −5.54 |
| M27 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.50 | −6.04 |
| M28 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away5 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.01 | −6.05 |
| M29 | Werder Bremen · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.49 | −4.56 |
| M30 | St Pauli · Away17 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.42 | −4.98 |
| M31 | Leverkusen · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.04 | −6.02 |
| M32 | Union Berlin · Away2 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.37 | −6.39 |
| M33 | Heidenheim · Home10 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.62 | −8.01 |
| M34 | Bayern Munich · Away16 May 2026 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.33 | −8.34 |
| Total | 32 | −8.34 | |||