Points
38Points expected by the market
37.58Gap
+0.42Yield
−27.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.41 | −11.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 27 | +5.23 | +15.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 8 | −4.40 | −72.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.41 | −11.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 19 | +5.05 | +34.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 2 | −2.39 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 6 | 8 | +0.18 | −15.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 11 | 6 | −2.02 | −59.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away24 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 |
| M2 | St Pauli · Home29 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.46 | −1.48 |
| M3 | Bayern Munich · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.19 | −1.67 |
| M4 | Heidenheim · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.16 | −0.51 |
| M5 | Union Berlin · Away28 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.55 |
| M6 | Mainz · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +1.28 |
| M7 | RB Leipzig · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.67 | +0.61 |
| M8 | Wolfsburg · Home25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.57 | −0.96 |
| M9 | FC Koln · Away2 Nov 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.30 | −2.26 |
| M10 | Dortmund · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.01 | −2.25 |
| M11 | Augsburg · Away22 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.28 | −3.53 |
| M12 | Stuttgart · Home30 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.70 | −1.84 |
| M13 | Werder Bremen · Home7 Dec 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.53 | −0.31 |
| M14 | Hoffenheim · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.87 | −1.17 |
| M15 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home20 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | −1.60 |
| M16 | Freiburg · Away10 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −2.48 |
| M17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.45 | −2.92 |
| M18 | St Pauli · Away23 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.35 | −3.27 |
| M19 | Bayern Munich · Home31 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.53 | −2.74 |
| M20 | Heidenheim · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.54 | −1.20 |
| M21 | Union Berlin · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.49 | +0.29 |
| M22 | Mainz · Away20 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.21 |
| M23 | RB Leipzig · Home1 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −0.79 |
| M24 | Leverkusen · Home4 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −1.84 |
| M25 | Wolfsburg · Away7 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.66 | −0.19 |
| M26 | FC Koln · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.67 |
| M27 | Dortmund · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.61 | −1.27 |
| M28 | Augsburg · Home4 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | −1.74 |
| M29 | Stuttgart · Away12 Apr 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.48 | −2.22 |
| M30 | Werder Bremen · Away18 Apr 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −3.14 |
| M31 | Hoffenheim · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −4.01 |
| M32 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away2 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.14 | −1.87 |
| M33 | Freiburg · Home10 May 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.78 | −0.09 |
| M34 | Leverkusen · Away16 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.42 |
| Total | 38 | +0.42 | |||