Points
26Points expected by the market
31.32Gap
−5.32Yield
−36.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.69 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 14 | +2.43 | +21.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 24 | 12 | −6.06 | −55.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.69 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 11 | +0.57 | −1.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 6 | −0.09 | −42.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.86 | +208.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 6 | −5.97 | −62.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Wolfsburg · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.31 | −1.31 |
| M2 | RB Leipzig · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.68 | −1.99 |
| M3 | Dortmund · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.78 | −2.77 |
| M4 | Hamburg · Away20 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −3.69 |
| M5 | Augsburg · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | −1.96 |
| M6 | Stuttgart · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.59 | −2.56 |
| M7 | Werder Bremen · Home18 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.33 | −2.89 |
| M8 | Hoffenheim · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.77 | −3.65 |
| M9 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.06 | −3.59 |
| M10 | Leverkusen · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 0-6 | 0 | −0.58 | −4.17 |
| M11 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.13 | −5.30 |
| M12 | Union Berlin · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.28 | −3.01 |
| M13 | Freiburg · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.12 | −0.90 |
| M14 | St Pauli · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −1.82 |
| M15 | Bayern Munich · Home21 Dec 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.33 | −2.15 |
| M16 | FC Koln · Home10 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.32 | −2.47 |
| M17 | Mainz · Away13 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.88 | −3.34 |
| M18 | Wolfsburg · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.17 | −3.18 |
| M19 | RB Leipzig · Home24 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.83 | −4.01 |
| M20 | Dortmund · Away1 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.44 | −4.44 |
| M21 | Hamburg · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −5.71 |
| M22 | Augsburg · Away15 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −6.69 |
| M23 | Stuttgart · Home22 Feb 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.14 | −6.56 |
| M24 | Werder Bremen · Away28 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −7.35 |
| M25 | Hoffenheim · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.72 | −8.07 |
| M26 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away14 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | −8.88 |
| M27 | Leverkusen · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.26 | −8.62 |
| M28 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away4 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.22 | −8.40 |
| M29 | Union Berlin · Home11 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.69 | −6.71 |
| M30 | Freiburg · Away19 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.81 | −7.51 |
| M31 | St Pauli · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.50 | −6.01 |
| M32 | Bayern Munich · Away2 May 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.53 | −5.49 |
| M33 | FC Koln · Away10 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.86 | −3.63 |
| M34 | Mainz · Home16 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.69 | −5.32 |
| Total | 26 | −5.32 | |||