Points
59Points expected by the market
56.04Gap
+2.96Yield
+2.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 7 | −1.99 | −29.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 19 | 38 | +3.99 | +8.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 13 | +1.18 | +26.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.23 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 7 | −1.99 | −29.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 23 | +2.78 | +15.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.33 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 15 | +1.21 | −1.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 13 | +2.51 | +42.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.45 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Hoffenheim · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.88 | −1.88 |
| M2 | Werder Bremen · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.72 | −2.60 |
| M3 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home12 Sep 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.41 | −1.18 |
| M4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home21 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.08 | −2.27 |
| M5 | St Pauli · Away27 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | −0.76 |
| M6 | Union Berlin · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.09 | +0.33 |
| M7 | Mainz · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.67 | +2.00 |
| M8 | Freiburg · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +3.29 |
| M9 | Bayern Munich · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.45 | +2.84 |
| M10 | Heidenheim · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 6-0 | 3 | +0.77 | +3.61 |
| M11 | Wolfsburg · Away22 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.34 | +4.94 |
| M12 | Dortmund · Home29 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.33 | +3.61 |
| M13 | Augsburg · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.62 | +1.99 |
| M14 | FC Koln · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.15 | +3.14 |
| M15 | RB Leipzig · Away20 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.87 | +5.00 |
| M16 | Stuttgart · Home10 Jan 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.57 | +3.43 |
| M17 | Hoffenheim · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.27 | +2.16 |
| M18 | Werder Bremen · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.96 | +3.11 |
| M19 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +4.47 |
| M20 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away7 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | +3.80 |
| M21 | St Pauli · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +4.71 |
| M22 | Union Berlin · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.51 | +3.19 |
| M23 | Mainz · Home28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.91 | +2.28 |
| M24 | Hamburg · Away4 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.31 | +3.59 |
| M25 | Freiburg · Away7 Mar 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.48 | +3.11 |
| M26 | Bayern Munich · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.23 | +3.34 |
| M27 | Heidenheim · Away21 Mar 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.05 | +2.28 |
| M28 | Wolfsburg · Home4 Apr 2026 | W 6-3 | 3 | +0.83 | +3.11 |
| M29 | Dortmund · Away11 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.87 | +4.97 |
| M30 | Augsburg · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.22 | +2.75 |
| M31 | FC Koln · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.28 | +4.03 |
| M32 | RB Leipzig · Home2 May 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.42 | +5.45 |
| M33 | Stuttgart · Away9 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.13 | +4.32 |
| M34 | Hamburg · Home16 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.36 | +2.96 |
| Total | 59 | +2.96 | |||