Points
40Points expected by the market
43.33Gap
−3.33Yield
−13.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 12 | −3.50 | −35.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 19 | −1.46 | −14.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 9 | +1.63 | +10.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 12 | −1.93 | −27.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 5 | −5.85 | −71.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.99 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.57 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 14 | +4.39 | +42.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 9 | +2.62 | +24.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | FC Koln · Home24 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.71 | −1.71 |
| M2 | Wolfsburg · Away31 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.14 | −1.86 |
| M3 | RB Leipzig · Home13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.48 | −3.33 |
| M4 | Augsburg · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.63 | −1.70 |
| M5 | Dortmund · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −2.79 |
| M6 | Hamburg · Away5 Oct 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.57 | −4.36 |
| M7 | Leverkusen · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.40 | −5.76 |
| M8 | Stuttgart · Away26 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.11 | −6.87 |
| M9 | Werder Bremen · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.76 | −7.63 |
| M10 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away9 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.98 | −8.61 |
| M11 | Hoffenheim · Home21 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −9.02 |
| M12 | Freiburg · Away30 Nov 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.86 | −9.88 |
| M13 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home5 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.33 | −11.21 |
| M14 | Bayern Munich · Away14 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.79 | −10.42 |
| M15 | St Pauli · Home21 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.72 | −11.15 |
| M16 | Union Berlin · Away10 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.06 | −11.21 |
| M17 | Heidenheim · Home13 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.13 | −10.08 |
| M18 | FC Koln · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.10 | −11.18 |
| M19 | Wolfsburg · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.49 | −9.70 |
| M20 | RB Leipzig · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.27 | −7.42 |
| M21 | Augsburg · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.28 | −6.14 |
| M22 | Dortmund · Away13 Feb 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.82 | −6.96 |
| M23 | Hamburg · Home20 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | −7.61 |
| M24 | Leverkusen · Away28 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.14 | −7.46 |
| M25 | Stuttgart · Home7 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.06 | −7.52 |
| M26 | Werder Bremen · Away15 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.80 | −5.72 |
| M27 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home22 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.42 | −4.30 |
| M28 | Hoffenheim · Away4 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.14 | −2.16 |
| M29 | Freiburg · Home12 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | −3.74 |
| M30 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away19 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | −3.93 |
| M31 | Bayern Munich · Home25 Apr 2026 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.99 | −4.93 |
| M32 | St Pauli · Away3 May 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.59 | −3.33 |
| M33 | Union Berlin · Home10 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.91 | −5.25 |
| M34 | Heidenheim · Away16 May 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.92 | −3.33 |
| Total | 40 | −3.33 | |||