Points
62Points expected by the market
55.90Gap
+6.10Yield
+2.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 12 | +3.09 | +38.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 30 | +0.47 | −11.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 19 | +3.97 | +36.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −1.43 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 12 | +3.09 | +38.3% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 24 | +5.19 | +22.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | +0.14 | +20.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.80 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 6 | −4.72 | −66.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 16 | +3.83 | +39.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 1 | −0.63 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Union Berlin · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.78 | −1.78 |
| M2 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.99 | −0.79 |
| M3 | Freiburg · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.39 | −2.17 |
| M4 | St Pauli · Home19 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.21 | −0.97 |
| M5 | FC Koln · Away28 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.63 | +0.67 |
| M6 | Heidenheim · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.78 | +1.45 |
| M7 | Wolfsburg · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.53 | +2.98 |
| M8 | Mainz · Home26 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.37 | +4.35 |
| M9 | RB Leipzig · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.14 | +3.20 |
| M10 | Augsburg · Home9 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +0.92 | +4.13 |
| M11 | Dortmund · Away22 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.07 | +4.20 |
| M12 | Hamburg · Away30 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | +2.77 |
| M13 | Bayern Munich · Home6 Dec 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.80 | +1.97 |
| M14 | Werder Bremen · Away14 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +3.49 |
| M15 | Hoffenheim · Home20 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.69 | +2.80 |
| M16 | Leverkusen · Away10 Jan 2026 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.83 | +4.63 |
| M17 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home13 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.07 | +5.69 |
| M18 | Union Berlin · Home18 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.02 | +4.67 |
| M19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away25 Jan 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.50 | +6.18 |
| M20 | Freiburg · Home1 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.04 | +7.22 |
| M21 | St Pauli · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.91 | +5.31 |
| M22 | FC Koln · Home14 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.90 | +6.21 |
| M23 | Heidenheim · Away22 Feb 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.91 | +5.29 |
| M24 | Wolfsburg · Home1 Mar 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.77 | +6.07 |
| M25 | Mainz · Away7 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.69 | +5.37 |
| M26 | RB Leipzig · Home15 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | +6.96 |
| M27 | Augsburg · Away22 Mar 2026 | W 5-2 | 3 | +1.34 | +8.30 |
| M28 | Dortmund · Home4 Apr 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.45 | +6.85 |
| M29 | Hamburg · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.64 | +7.48 |
| M30 | Bayern Munich · Away19 Apr 2026 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.70 | +6.78 |
| M31 | Werder Bremen · Home26 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.05 | +5.73 |
| M32 | Hoffenheim · Away2 May 2026 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.23 | +5.50 |
| M33 | Leverkusen · Home9 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +6.86 |
| M34 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away16 May 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.76 | +6.10 |
| Total | 62 | +6.10 | |||