Points
29Points expected by the market
40.87Gap
−11.87Yield
−45.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 10 | −1.89 | −45.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 16 | −6.78 | −18.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 3 | −3.20 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 10 | −1.89 | −45.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 0 | −10.70 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.57 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 16 | +3.91 | +47.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 3 | −1.63 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Heidenheim · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.59 | +1.59 |
| M2 | Mainz · Home31 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.59 | +1.00 |
| M3 | FC Koln · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.73 | +0.27 |
| M4 | Dortmund · Away21 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.73 | −0.46 |
| M5 | RB Leipzig · Home27 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −1.81 |
| M6 | Augsburg · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.33 | −3.14 |
| M7 | Stuttgart · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.26 | −4.40 |
| M8 | Hamburg · Away25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.82 | −2.58 |
| M9 | Hoffenheim · Home2 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.30 | −3.88 |
| M10 | Werder Bremen · Away7 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −5.04 |
| M11 | Leverkusen · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.09 | −6.13 |
| M12 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Away30 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.04 | −6.17 |
| M13 | Union Berlin · Home6 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.31 | −4.85 |
| M14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away13 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.93 | −2.93 |
| M15 | Freiburg · Home20 Dec 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −1.45 | −4.37 |
| M16 | Bayern Munich · Away11 Jan 2026 | L 1-8 | 0 | −0.27 | −4.64 |
| M17 | St Pauli · Home14 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.19 | −3.45 |
| M18 | Heidenheim · Home17 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.93 | −4.38 |
| M19 | Mainz · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.20 | −5.59 |
| M20 | FC Koln · Away30 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.09 | −6.68 |
| M21 | Dortmund · Home7 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.86 | −7.54 |
| M22 | RB Leipzig · Away15 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.27 | −7.26 |
| M23 | Augsburg · Home21 Feb 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.56 | −8.82 |
| M24 | Stuttgart · Away1 Mar 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.60 | −9.42 |
| M25 | Hamburg · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.38 | −10.80 |
| M26 | Hoffenheim · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.38 | −10.43 |
| M27 | Werder Bremen · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | −11.89 |
| M28 | Leverkusen · Away4 Apr 2026 | L 3-6 | 0 | −0.63 | −12.53 |
| M29 | Eintracht Frankfurt · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −13.93 |
| M30 | Union Berlin · Away18 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.84 | −12.09 |
| M31 | Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home25 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.58 | −12.67 |
| M32 | Freiburg · Away3 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.11 | −12.77 |
| M33 | Bayern Munich · Home9 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.71 | −13.49 |
| M34 | St Pauli · Away16 May 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.62 | −11.87 |
| Total | 29 | −11.87 | |||