← Championship 2019-20

Derby

Season 2019-20 · 46 matches played

Last 5LLLLW

Points

Points expected by the market

59.23

Gap

+4.77

Yield

−1.6%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	7	16	11.84	+4.16	+44.6%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	27	37	36.00	+1.00	−9.4%
Underdog 3.50 or more	12	11	11.39	−0.39	−10.9%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	7	16	11.84	+4.16	+44.6%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	15	25	20.99	+4.01	+1.9%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	1	0	0.80	−0.80	−100.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	0	—	—	—	—
Even 2.20 – 3.49	12	12	15.01	−3.01	−23.6%
Underdog 3.50 or more	11	11	10.59	+0.41	−2.8%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Huddersfield · Away5 Aug 2019	5 Aug 2019	W 2-1	3.56	1.09	3	+1.91	+1.91	+€2.56
M2	Swansea · Home10 Aug 2019	10 Aug 2019	D 0-0	2.30	1.53	1	−0.53	+1.38	−€1.00
M3	Stoke · Away17 Aug 2019	17 Aug 2019	D 2-2	3.68	1.07	1	−0.07	+1.31	−€1.00
M4	Bristol City · Home20 Aug 2019	20 Aug 2019	L 1-2	1.98	1.71	0	−1.71	−0.41	−€1.00
M5	West Bromwich Albion · Home24 Aug 2019	24 Aug 2019	D 1-1	2.89	1.27	1	−0.27	−0.67	−€1.00
M6	Brentford · Away31 Aug 2019	31 Aug 2019	L 0-3	4.52	0.89	0	−0.89	−1.57	−€1.00
M7	Cardiff · Home13 Sep 2019	13 Sep 2019	D 1-1	2.50	1.42	1	−0.42	−1.99	−€1.00
M8	Leeds · Away21 Sep 2019	21 Sep 2019	D 1-1	7.13	0.61	1	+0.39	−1.59	−€1.00
M9	Birmingham · Home28 Sep 2019	28 Sep 2019	W 3-2	2.38	1.51	3	+1.49	−0.10	+€1.38
M10	Barnsley · Away2 Oct 2019	2 Oct 2019	D 2-2	2.46	1.43	1	−0.43	−0.53	−€1.00
M11	Luton · Home5 Oct 2019	5 Oct 2019	W 2-0	2.02	1.68	3	+1.32	+0.79	+€1.02
M12	Charlton · Away19 Oct 2019	19 Oct 2019	L 0-3	2.76	1.32	0	−1.32	−0.53	−€1.00
M13	Wigan · Home23 Oct 2019	23 Oct 2019	W 1-0	2.05	1.68	3	+1.32	+0.79	+€1.05
M14	Hull · Away26 Oct 2019	26 Oct 2019	L 0-2	3.26	1.14	0	−1.14	−0.35	−€1.00
M15	Middlesbrough · Home2 Nov 2019	2 Nov 2019	W 2-0	2.15	1.61	3	+1.39	+1.04	+€1.15
M16	Nottingham Forest · Away9 Nov 2019	9 Nov 2019	L 0-1	3.52	1.09	0	−1.09	−0.05	−€1.00
M17	Preston · Home23 Nov 2019	23 Nov 2019	W 1-0	2.84	1.30	3	+1.70	+1.65	+€1.84
M18	Fulham · Away26 Nov 2019	26 Nov 2019	L 0-3	5.40	0.76	0	−0.76	+0.89	−€1.00
M19	Queens Park Rangers · Home30 Nov 2019	30 Nov 2019	D 1-1	2.23	1.55	1	−0.55	+0.34	−€1.00
M20	Blackburn · Away7 Dec 2019	7 Dec 2019	L 0-1	3.89	1.00	0	−1.00	−0.66	−€1.00
M21	Sheffield Wednesday · Home11 Dec 2019	11 Dec 2019	D 1-1	3.06	1.22	1	−0.22	−0.88	−€1.00
M22	Millwall · Home14 Dec 2019	14 Dec 2019	L 0-1	2.49	1.44	0	−1.44	−2.32	−€1.00
M23	Reading · Away21 Dec 2019	21 Dec 2019	L 0-3	3.60	1.07	0	−1.07	−3.40	−€1.00
M24	Wigan · Away26 Dec 2019	26 Dec 2019	D 1-1	3.01	1.24	1	−0.24	−3.64	−€1.00
M25	Charlton · Home30 Dec 2019	30 Dec 2019	W 2-1	1.82	1.83	3	+1.17	−2.47	+€0.82
M26	Barnsley · Home2 Jan 2020	2 Jan 2020	W 2-1	2.30	1.51	3	+1.49	−0.98	+€1.30
M27	Middlesbrough · Away11 Jan 2020	11 Jan 2020	D 2-2	3.49	1.10	1	−0.10	−1.08	−€1.00
M28	Hull · Home18 Jan 2020	18 Jan 2020	W 1-0	2.29	1.52	3	+1.48	+0.40	+€1.29
M29	Luton · Away28 Jan 2020	28 Jan 2020	L 2-3	2.24	1.54	0	−1.54	−1.14	−€1.00
M30	Stoke · Home31 Jan 2020	31 Jan 2020	W 4-0	3.02	1.25	3	+1.75	+0.61	+€2.02
M31	Swansea · Away8 Feb 2020	8 Feb 2020	W 3-2	3.59	1.07	3	+1.93	+2.55	+€2.59
M32	Bristol City · Away12 Feb 2020	12 Feb 2020	L 2-3	2.97	1.24	0	−1.24	+1.31	−€1.00
M33	Huddersfield · Home15 Feb 2020	15 Feb 2020	D 1-1	2.05	1.68	1	−0.68	+0.63	−€1.00
M34	Fulham · Home21 Feb 2020	21 Feb 2020	D 1-1	2.86	1.29	1	−0.29	+0.34	−€1.00
M35	Queens Park Rangers · Away25 Feb 2020	25 Feb 2020	L 1-2	3.25	1.15	0	−1.15	−0.81	−€1.00
M36	Sheffield Wednesday · Away29 Feb 2020	29 Feb 2020	W 3-1	3.54	1.09	3	+1.91	+1.11	+€2.54
M37	Blackburn · Home8 Mar 2020	8 Mar 2020	W 3-0	2.46	1.45	3	+1.55	+2.66	+€1.46
M38	Millwall · Away20 Jun 2020	20 Jun 2020	W 3-2	3.12	1.22	3	+1.78	+4.43	+€2.12
M39	Reading · Home27 Jun 2020	27 Jun 2020	W 2-1	2.08	1.65	3	+1.35	+5.78	+€1.08
M40	Preston · Away1 Jul 2020	1 Jul 2020	W 1-0	2.83	1.29	3	+1.71	+7.49	+€1.83
M41	Nottingham Forest · Home4 Jul 2020	4 Jul 2020	D 1-1	2.46	1.46	1	−0.46	+7.03	−€1.00
M42	West Bromwich Albion · Away8 Jul 2020	8 Jul 2020	L 0-2	4.74	0.84	0	−0.84	+6.19	−€1.00
M43	Brentford · Home11 Jul 2020	11 Jul 2020	L 1-3	5.02	0.80	0	−0.80	+5.39	−€1.00
M44	Cardiff · Away14 Jul 2020	14 Jul 2020	L 1-2	3.19	1.18	0	−1.18	+4.21	−€1.00
M45	Leeds · Home19 Jul 2020	19 Jul 2020	L 1-3	2.82	1.28	0	−1.28	+2.93	−€1.00
M46	Birmingham · Away22 Jul 2020	22 Jul 2020	W 3-1	3.22	1.16	3	+1.84	+4.77	+€2.22
Total					59.23	64	+4.77		−€0.73