← Championship 2019-20

Nottingham Forest

Season 2019-20 · 46 matches played

Last 5LDDLL

Points

Points expected by the market

63.18

Gap

+6.82

Yield

+16.8%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	14	27	24.55	+2.45	+10.1%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	24	25	31.55	−6.55	−35.1%
Underdog 3.50 or more	8	18	7.07	+10.93	+184.1%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	14	27	24.55	+2.45	+10.1%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	8	5	11.42	−6.42	−61.6%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	1	3	0.94	+2.06	+316.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	0	—	—	—	—
Even 2.20 – 3.49	16	20	20.14	−0.14	−21.9%
Underdog 3.50 or more	7	15	6.13	+8.87	+165.3%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	West Bromwich Albion · Home3 Aug 2019	3 Aug 2019	L 1-2	2.44	1.46	0	−1.46	−1.46	−€1.00
M2	Leeds · Away10 Aug 2019	10 Aug 2019	D 1-1	6.08	0.71	1	+0.29	−1.17	−€1.00
M3	Birmingham · Home17 Aug 2019	17 Aug 2019	W 3-0	2.18	1.61	3	+1.39	+0.22	+€1.18
M4	Charlton · Away21 Aug 2019	21 Aug 2019	D 1-1	2.49	1.44	1	−0.44	−0.22	−€1.00
M5	Fulham · Away24 Aug 2019	24 Aug 2019	W 2-1	5.48	0.76	3	+2.24	+2.01	+€4.48
M6	Preston · Home31 Aug 2019	31 Aug 2019	D 1-1	2.38	1.49	1	−0.49	+1.52	−€1.00
M7	Swansea · Away14 Sep 2019	14 Sep 2019	W 1-0	4.01	0.97	3	+2.03	+3.55	+€3.01
M8	Barnsley · Home21 Sep 2019	21 Sep 2019	W 1-0	1.69	1.93	3	+1.07	+4.62	+€0.69
M9	Stoke · Away27 Sep 2019	27 Sep 2019	W 3-2	3.46	1.13	3	+1.87	+6.49	+€2.46
M10	Blackburn · Away1 Oct 2019	1 Oct 2019	D 1-1	3.69	1.04	1	−0.04	+6.45	−€1.00
M11	Brentford · Home5 Oct 2019	5 Oct 2019	W 1-0	3.07	1.22	3	+1.78	+8.23	+€2.07
M12	Wigan · Away20 Oct 2019	20 Oct 2019	L 0-1	2.87	1.30	0	−1.30	+6.94	−€1.00
M13	Hull · Home23 Oct 2019	23 Oct 2019	L 1-2	2.14	1.60	0	−1.60	+5.33	−€1.00
M14	Luton · Away2 Nov 2019	2 Nov 2019	W 2-1	2.65	1.36	3	+1.64	+6.98	+€1.65
M15	Derby · Home9 Nov 2019	9 Nov 2019	W 1-0	2.11	1.63	3	+1.37	+8.34	+€1.11
M16	Bristol City · Away23 Nov 2019	23 Nov 2019	D 0-0	3.12	1.20	1	−0.20	+8.15	−€1.00
M17	Queens Park Rangers · Away27 Nov 2019	27 Nov 2019	W 4-0	3.07	1.20	3	+1.80	+9.95	+€2.07
M18	Cardiff · Home30 Nov 2019	30 Nov 2019	L 0-1	2.14	1.62	0	−1.62	+8.33	−€1.00
M19	Millwall · Away6 Dec 2019	6 Dec 2019	D 2-2	3.20	1.21	1	−0.21	+8.13	−€1.00
M20	Middlesbrough · Home10 Dec 2019	10 Dec 2019	D 1-1	1.76	1.88	1	−0.88	+7.25	−€1.00
M21	Sheffield Wednesday · Home14 Dec 2019	14 Dec 2019	L 0-4	2.61	1.39	0	−1.39	+5.86	−€1.00
M22	Huddersfield · Away21 Dec 2019	21 Dec 2019	L 1-2	3.03	1.25	0	−1.25	+4.60	−€1.00
M23	Hull · Away26 Dec 2019	26 Dec 2019	W 2-0	3.58	1.07	3	+1.93	+6.54	+€2.58
M24	Wigan · Home29 Dec 2019	29 Dec 2019	W 1-0	1.84	1.83	3	+1.17	+7.71	+€0.84
M25	Blackburn · Home1 Jan 2020	1 Jan 2020	W 3-2	2.03	1.69	3	+1.31	+9.03	+€1.03
M26	Reading · Away11 Jan 2020	11 Jan 2020	D 1-1	3.03	1.23	1	−0.23	+8.79	−€1.00
M27	Luton · Home19 Jan 2020	19 Jan 2020	W 3-1	1.55	2.06	3	+0.94	+9.74	+€0.55
M28	Reading · Home22 Jan 2020	22 Jan 2020	D 1-1	1.96	1.73	1	−0.73	+9.01	−€1.00
M29	Brentford · Away28 Jan 2020	28 Jan 2020	W 1-0	5.50	0.77	3	+2.23	+11.24	+€4.50
M30	Birmingham · Away1 Feb 2020	1 Feb 2020	L 1-2	2.77	1.33	0	−1.33	+9.91	−€1.00
M31	Leeds · Home8 Feb 2020	8 Feb 2020	W 2-0	4.16	0.94	3	+2.06	+11.97	+€3.16
M32	Charlton · Home11 Feb 2020	11 Feb 2020	L 0-1	1.76	1.89	0	−1.89	+10.08	−€1.00
M33	West Bromwich Albion · Away15 Feb 2020	15 Feb 2020	D 2-2	5.03	0.81	1	+0.19	+10.27	−€1.00
M34	Queens Park Rangers · Home22 Feb 2020	22 Feb 2020	D 0-0	2.02	1.67	1	−0.67	+9.60	−€1.00
M35	Cardiff · Away25 Feb 2020	25 Feb 2020	W 1-0	3.32	1.15	3	+1.85	+11.44	+€2.32
M36	Middlesbrough · Away2 Mar 2020	2 Mar 2020	D 2-2	2.85	1.31	1	−0.31	+11.14	−€1.00
M37	Millwall · Home6 Mar 2020	6 Mar 2020	L 0-3	2.35	1.52	0	−1.52	+9.62	−€1.00
M38	Sheffield Wednesday · Away20 Jun 2020	20 Jun 2020	D 1-1	2.72	1.34	1	−0.34	+9.28	−€1.00
M39	Huddersfield · Home28 Jun 2020	28 Jun 2020	W 3-1	2.15	1.62	3	+1.38	+10.65	+€1.15
M40	Bristol City · Home1 Jul 2020	1 Jul 2020	W 1-0	1.87	1.79	3	+1.21	+11.86	+€0.87
M41	Derby · Away4 Jul 2020	4 Jul 2020	D 1-1	3.03	1.24	1	−0.24	+11.62	−€1.00
M42	Fulham · Home7 Jul 2020	7 Jul 2020	L 0-1	2.77	1.34	0	−1.34	+10.28	−€1.00
M43	Preston · Away11 Jul 2020	11 Jul 2020	D 1-1	3.42	1.14	1	−0.14	+10.14	−€1.00
M44	Swansea · Home15 Jul 2020	15 Jul 2020	D 2-2	2.48	1.44	1	−0.44	+9.70	−€1.00
M45	Barnsley · Away19 Jul 2020	19 Jul 2020	L 0-1	2.77	1.32	0	−1.32	+8.38	−€1.00
M46	Stoke · Home22 Jul 2020	22 Jul 2020	L 1-4	2.25	1.56	0	−1.56	+6.82	−€1.00
Total					63.18	70	+6.82		+€7.72