← Championship 2020-21

Nottingham Forest

Season 2020-21 · 46 matches played

Last 5LDDDL

Points

Points expected by the market

61.64

Gap

−9.64

Yield

−31.9%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	9	13	15.50	−2.50	−36.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	27	31	36.57	−5.57	−31.7%
Underdog 3.50 or more	10	8	9.57	−1.57	−28.6%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	6	8	10.58	−2.58	−37.7%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	15	18	20.99	−2.99	−32.1%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	2	0	1.95	−1.95	−100.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches	3	5	4.91	+0.09	−32.7%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	12	13	15.57	−2.57	−31.2%
Underdog 3.50 or more	8	8	7.63	+0.37	−10.8%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Queens Park Rangers · Away12 Sep 2020	12 Sep 2020	L 0-2	2.67	1.37	0	−1.37	−1.37	−€1.00
M2	Cardiff · Home19 Sep 2020	19 Sep 2020	L 0-2	2.55	1.42	0	−1.42	−2.79	−€1.00
M3	Huddersfield · Away25 Sep 2020	25 Sep 2020	L 0-1	2.57	1.41	0	−1.41	−4.20	−€1.00
M4	Bristol City · Home3 Oct 2020	3 Oct 2020	L 1-2	2.65	1.38	0	−1.38	−5.58	−€1.00
M5	Blackburn · Away17 Oct 2020	17 Oct 2020	W 1-0	3.53	1.09	3	+1.91	−3.66	+€2.53
M6	Rotherham · Home20 Oct 2020	20 Oct 2020	D 1-1	1.79	1.86	1	−0.86	−4.52	−€1.00
M7	Derby · Home23 Oct 2020	23 Oct 2020	D 1-1	2.04	1.69	1	−0.69	−5.21	−€1.00
M8	Luton · Away28 Oct 2020	28 Oct 2020	D 1-1	2.13	1.63	1	−0.63	−5.85	−€1.00
M9	Middlesbrough · Away31 Oct 2020	31 Oct 2020	L 0-1	2.89	1.31	0	−1.31	−7.16	−€1.00
M10	Coventry · Home4 Nov 2020	4 Nov 2020	W 2-1	2.07	1.68	3	+1.32	−5.84	+€1.07
M11	Wycombe · Home7 Nov 2020	7 Nov 2020	W 2-0	1.67	1.96	3	+1.04	−4.80	+€0.67
M12	Barnsley · Away21 Nov 2020	21 Nov 2020	L 0-2	2.85	1.30	0	−1.30	−6.10	−€1.00
M13	Bournemouth · Away24 Nov 2020	24 Nov 2020	L 0-2	5.15	0.81	0	−0.81	−6.91	−€1.00
M14	Swansea · Home29 Nov 2020	29 Nov 2020	L 0-1	2.87	1.30	0	−1.30	−8.21	−€1.00
M15	Watford · Home2 Dec 2020	2 Dec 2020	D 0-0	3.26	1.17	1	−0.17	−8.39	−€1.00
M16	Reading · Away5 Dec 2020	5 Dec 2020	L 0-2	3.35	1.15	0	−1.15	−9.54	−€1.00
M17	Norwich · Away9 Dec 2020	9 Dec 2020	L 1-2	4.26	0.93	0	−0.93	−10.47	−€1.00
M18	Brentford · Home12 Dec 2020	12 Dec 2020	L 1-3	3.71	1.06	0	−1.06	−11.53	−€1.00
M19	Sheffield Wednesday · Home15 Dec 2020	15 Dec 2020	W 2-0	2.39	1.50	3	+1.50	−10.03	+€1.39
M20	Millwall · Away19 Dec 2020	19 Dec 2020	D 1-1	3.25	1.19	1	−0.19	−10.22	−€1.00
M21	Birmingham · Home26 Dec 2020	26 Dec 2020	D 0-0	2.23	1.59	1	−0.59	−10.82	−€1.00
M22	Stoke · Away29 Dec 2020	29 Dec 2020	D 1-1	3.05	1.25	1	−0.25	−11.07	−€1.00
M23	Preston · Away2 Jan 2021	2 Jan 2021	W 1-0	2.70	1.37	3	+1.63	−9.44	+€1.70
M24	Millwall · Home16 Jan 2021	16 Jan 2021	W 3-1	2.60	1.42	3	+1.58	−7.86	+€1.60
M25	Middlesbrough · Home20 Jan 2021	20 Jan 2021	L 1-2	2.71	1.38	0	−1.38	−9.24	−€1.00
M26	Barnsley · Home30 Jan 2021	30 Jan 2021	D 0-0	2.52	1.43	1	−0.43	−9.67	−€1.00
M27	Coventry · Away2 Feb 2021	2 Feb 2021	W 2-1	2.89	1.30	3	+1.70	−7.97	+€1.89
M28	Wycombe · Away6 Feb 2021	6 Feb 2021	W 3-0	2.02	1.69	3	+1.31	−6.66	+€1.02
M29	Bournemouth · Home13 Feb 2021	13 Feb 2021	D 0-0	3.20	1.18	1	−0.18	−6.83	−€1.00
M30	Swansea · Away17 Feb 2021	17 Feb 2021	L 0-1	4.13	0.99	0	−0.99	−7.82	−€1.00
M31	Blackburn · Home20 Feb 2021	20 Feb 2021	W 1-0	2.59	1.41	3	+1.59	−6.22	+€1.59
M32	Rotherham · Away23 Feb 2021	23 Feb 2021	W 1-0	2.67	1.37	3	+1.63	−4.59	+€1.67
M33	Derby · Away26 Feb 2021	26 Feb 2021	D 1-1	3.03	1.27	1	−0.27	−4.86	−€1.00
M34	Luton · Home2 Mar 2021	2 Mar 2021	L 0-1	1.89	1.79	0	−1.79	−6.65	−€1.00
M35	Watford · Away6 Mar 2021	6 Mar 2021	L 0-1	4.38	0.94	0	−0.94	−7.59	−€1.00
M36	Reading · Home13 Mar 2021	13 Mar 2021	D 1-1	2.65	1.39	1	−0.39	−7.98	−€1.00
M37	Norwich · Home17 Mar 2021	17 Mar 2021	L 0-2	4.54	0.89	0	−0.89	−8.87	−€1.00
M38	Brentford · Away20 Mar 2021	20 Mar 2021	D 1-1	5.63	0.77	1	+0.23	−8.64	−€1.00
M39	Cardiff · Away2 Apr 2021	2 Apr 2021	W 1-0	3.61	1.09	3	+1.91	−6.73	+€2.61
M40	Queens Park Rangers · Home5 Apr 2021	5 Apr 2021	W 3-1	2.60	1.39	3	+1.61	−5.12	+€1.60
M41	Bristol City · Away10 Apr 2021	10 Apr 2021	D 0-0	2.19	1.59	1	−0.59	−5.72	−€1.00
M42	Huddersfield · Home17 Apr 2021	17 Apr 2021	L 0-2	2.19	1.60	0	−1.60	−7.32	−€1.00
M43	Birmingham · Away21 Apr 2021	21 Apr 2021	D 1-1	2.98	1.28	1	−0.28	−7.59	−€1.00
M44	Stoke · Home24 Apr 2021	24 Apr 2021	D 1-1	2.45	1.47	1	−0.47	−8.07	−€1.00
M45	Sheffield Wednesday · Away1 May 2021	1 May 2021	D 0-0	3.85	1.02	1	−0.02	−8.08	−€1.00
M46	Preston · Home8 May 2021	8 May 2021	L 1-2	2.26	1.55	0	−1.55	−9.64	−€1.00
Total					61.64	52	−9.64		−€14.66