Points
53Points expected by the market
53.66Gap
−0.66Yield
+8.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 6 | −0.64 | +3.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 24 | −1.96 | −16.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 23 | 23 | +1.94 | +30.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 6 | −0.64 | +3.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 15 | −1.80 | −15.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 6 | −1.27 | −47.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 9 | −0.16 | −19.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 17 | +3.21 | +65.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Luton · Away30 Jul 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 |
| M2 | Huddersfield · Home5 Aug 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +1.58 |
| M3 | Cardiff · Away13 Aug 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.12 | +0.46 |
| M4 | Watford · Home16 Aug 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.39 |
| M5 | Wigan · Home20 Aug 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | −0.84 |
| M6 | Rotherham · Away27 Aug 2022 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −1.90 |
| M7 | Norwich · Home30 Aug 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.90 | −2.80 |
| M8 | Preston · Away3 Sep 2022 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.15 | −0.65 |
| M9 | West Bromwich Albion · Away14 Sep 2022 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.42 | +1.76 |
| M10 | Coventry · Home17 Sep 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.24 | +1.52 |
| M11 | Sheffield United · Away1 Oct 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.33 | +1.85 |
| M12 | Middlesbrough · Away5 Oct 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | +1.04 |
| M13 | Bristol City · Home8 Oct 2022 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +2.67 |
| M14 | Hull · Away16 Oct 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.68 | +4.35 |
| M15 | Burnley · Home19 Oct 2022 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.09 | +4.25 |
| M16 | Blackburn · Away22 Oct 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.11 | +3.14 |
| M17 | Queens Park Rangers · Home28 Oct 2022 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +4.68 |
| M18 | Millwall · Home2 Nov 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.49 | +4.19 |
| M19 | Stoke · Away5 Nov 2022 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.99 | +6.18 |
| M20 | Swansea · Home8 Nov 2022 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.33 | +5.85 |
| M21 | Sunderland · Home11 Nov 2022 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.61 | +4.25 |
| M22 | Blackpool · Away10 Dec 2022 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | +3.78 |
| M23 | Reading · Home16 Dec 2022 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.28 | +5.06 |
| M24 | Burnley · Away27 Dec 2022 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.70 | +4.36 |
| M25 | Hull · Home30 Dec 2022 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.68 | +2.68 |
| M26 | Middlesbrough · Home2 Jan 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.11 | +1.57 |
| M27 | Bristol City · Away14 Jan 2023 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.08 | +0.49 |
| M28 | Preston · Home21 Jan 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | −1.06 |
| M29 | Swansea · Away4 Feb 2023 | W 4-3 | 3 | +2.05 | +0.99 |
| M30 | West Bromwich Albion · Home10 Feb 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.94 | +2.93 |
| M31 | Cardiff · Home14 Feb 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.58 | +1.35 |
| M32 | Huddersfield · Away18 Feb 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.41 | −0.06 |
| M33 | Norwich · Away21 Feb 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.77 | −0.82 |
| M34 | Luton · Home25 Feb 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −1.96 |
| M35 | Wigan · Away4 Mar 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −2.12 |
| M36 | Rotherham · Home11 Mar 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.37 | −0.75 |
| M37 | Watford · Away14 Mar 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −1.71 |
| M38 | Queens Park Rangers · Away18 Mar 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.68 | −0.03 |
| M39 | Blackburn · Home1 Apr 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +1.61 |
| M40 | Reading · Away7 Apr 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.36 | +1.25 |
| M41 | Stoke · Home10 Apr 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.04 | +1.21 |
| M42 | Sunderland · Away15 Apr 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.89 | +0.32 |
| M43 | Millwall · Away18 Apr 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.24 | +2.56 |
| M44 | Blackpool · Home22 Apr 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.57 | +0.99 |
| M45 | Coventry · Away29 Apr 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.65 | +0.34 |
| M46 | Sheffield United · Home8 May 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −0.66 |
| Total | 53 | −0.66 | |||