Points
64Points expected by the market
67.63Gap
−3.63Yield
−9.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.48 | −33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 23 | −3.84 | −26.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 21 | 31 | +2.13 | +1.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 7 | −0.45 | −3.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 3 | −1.48 | −33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 11 | 19 | −1.03 | −17.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 10 | −1.36 | −30.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.00 | +75.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 4 | −2.81 | −48.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 21 | +3.50 | +21.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 6 | 4 | −1.45 | −29.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leicester · Away6 Aug 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| M2 | Middlesbrough · Home12 Aug 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +0.61 |
| M3 | Swansea · Away19 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.43 |
| M4 | Sunderland · Home26 Aug 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.27 |
| M5 | Watford · Home2 Sep 2023 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.81 |
| M6 | Hull · Away15 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −1.18 |
| M7 | Cardiff · Away19 Sep 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.36 | −2.54 |
| M8 | Huddersfield · Home25 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.72 | −3.26 |
| M9 | Queens Park Rangers · Away30 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.56 | −1.70 |
| M10 | Blackburn · Home4 Oct 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.40 | −0.30 |
| M11 | Norwich · Home7 Oct 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.72 |
| M12 | Bristol City · Away21 Oct 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.42 | −2.15 |
| M13 | Rotherham · Away25 Oct 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.93 | −4.08 |
| M14 | West Bromwich Albion · Home30 Oct 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.50 | −5.57 |
| M15 | Preston · Away4 Nov 2023 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.39 | −6.97 |
| M16 | Stoke · Home11 Nov 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.56 | −7.53 |
| M17 | Millwall · Away25 Nov 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.66 | −5.86 |
| M18 | Plymouth · Home28 Nov 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.03 | −4.84 |
| M19 | Ipswich · Away2 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −5.76 |
| M20 | Birmingham · Home8 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.10 | −4.66 |
| M21 | Southampton · Home13 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −5.04 |
| M22 | Leeds · Away16 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | −4.74 |
| M23 | Sunderland · Away23 Dec 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.08 | −2.66 |
| M24 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home26 Dec 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.14 | −1.51 |
| M25 | Swansea · Home29 Dec 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.90 | −2.41 |
| M26 | Middlesbrough · Away1 Jan 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.90 | −0.51 |
| M27 | Leicester · Home13 Jan 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.84 | +1.33 |
| M28 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away20 Jan 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.35 | +2.68 |
| M29 | Bristol City · Home30 Jan 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.88 | +1.80 |
| M30 | Norwich · Away3 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.29 | +0.52 |
| M31 | Millwall · Home11 Feb 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.13 | +1.65 |
| M32 | Plymouth · Away14 Feb 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.62 | +1.02 |
| M33 | Stoke · Away17 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +2.59 |
| M34 | Preston · Home23 Feb 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.95 | +0.64 |
| M35 | West Bromwich Albion · Away1 Mar 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −0.46 |
| M36 | Rotherham · Home5 Mar 2024 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.69 | +0.23 |
| M37 | Watford · Away9 Mar 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.55 | +1.78 |
| M38 | Huddersfield · Away29 Mar 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.46 | +3.24 |
| M39 | Cardiff · Home1 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.16 | +1.08 |
| M40 | Leeds · Home6 Apr 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.93 | +3.01 |
| M41 | Southampton · Away9 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.90 | +2.11 |
| M42 | Birmingham · Away13 Apr 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.61 | +0.50 |
| M43 | Hull · Home24 Apr 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.32 | −0.82 |
| M44 | Blackburn · Away27 Apr 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.18 | −1.01 |
| M45 | Ipswich · Home30 Apr 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.93 | −1.94 |
| M46 | Queens Park Rangers · Home4 May 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.69 | −3.63 |
| Total | 64 | −3.63 | |||