Points
45Points expected by the market
51.08Gap
−6.08Yield
−35.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 8 | −0.70 | −27.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 17 | −5.09 | −32.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 24 | 20 | −0.29 | −38.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | +0.14 | −9.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 15 | −0.82 | −4.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 4 | −2.71 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.84 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 2 | −4.27 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 17 | 16 | +2.42 | −13.6% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Plymouth · Away5 Aug 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −1.21 |
| M2 | Leicester · Home12 Aug 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −2.20 |
| M3 | Middlesbrough · Away19 Aug 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | −2.09 |
| M4 | Norwich · Home26 Aug 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.07 | −3.15 |
| M5 | West Bromwich Albion · Away2 Sep 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.14 | −1.01 |
| M6 | Rotherham · Home16 Sep 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.19 | +0.17 |
| M7 | Stoke · Home20 Sep 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 |
| M8 | Coventry · Away25 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.10 |
| M9 | Ipswich · Home30 Sep 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.18 |
| M10 | Birmingham · Away3 Oct 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.09 | −1.26 |
| M11 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away7 Oct 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.35 | −1.61 |
| M12 | Queens Park Rangers · Home21 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.16 | −0.46 |
| M13 | Cardiff · Home24 Oct 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.46 | −1.92 |
| M14 | Leeds · Away28 Oct 2023 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.47 | −2.39 |
| M15 | Watford · Home4 Nov 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | −2.48 |
| M16 | Hull · Away11 Nov 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.85 | −3.33 |
| M17 | Southampton · Home25 Nov 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.12 | −3.22 |
| M18 | Sunderland · Away29 Nov 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.33 | −0.89 |
| M19 | Swansea · Away2 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.87 |
| M20 | Bristol City · Home9 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −1.13 |
| M21 | Preston · Home12 Dec 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.35 | −2.48 |
| M22 | Millwall · Away16 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.19 | −2.30 |
| M23 | Norwich · Away23 Dec 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | −3.05 |
| M24 | Blackburn · Home26 Dec 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.81 | −1.23 |
| M25 | Middlesbrough · Home29 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.88 | −2.11 |
| M26 | Leicester · Away1 Jan 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.40 | −2.51 |
| M27 | Plymouth · Home13 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | −3.08 |
| M28 | Blackburn · Away20 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.05 | −3.03 |
| M29 | Queens Park Rangers · Away28 Jan 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.03 | −3.00 |
| M30 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home3 Feb 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.56 | −1.45 |
| M31 | Southampton · Away10 Feb 2024 | L 3-5 | 0 | −0.41 | −1.85 |
| M32 | Sunderland · Home14 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +0.01 |
| M33 | Hull · Home17 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.35 | −1.34 |
| M34 | Watford · Away24 Feb 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.96 | +0.62 |
| M35 | Leeds · Home2 Mar 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.90 |
| M36 | Cardiff · Away6 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −0.40 |
| M37 | West Bromwich Albion · Home10 Mar 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.32 | −1.72 |
| M38 | Rotherham · Away16 Mar 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.84 | −2.56 |
| M39 | Coventry · Home29 Mar 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.18 | −3.74 |
| M40 | Stoke · Away1 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −3.77 |
| M41 | Millwall · Home6 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.55 | −2.23 |
| M42 | Preston · Away9 Apr 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.26 | −3.48 |
| M43 | Bristol City · Away13 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −3.64 |
| M44 | Swansea · Home20 Apr 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.64 | −5.28 |
| M45 | Birmingham · Home27 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.41 | −5.69 |
| M46 | Ipswich · Away4 May 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.39 | −6.08 |
| Total | 45 | −6.08 | |||