Points
56Points expected by the market
61.66Gap
−5.66Yield
−9.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 16 | −6.08 | −41.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 21 | 26 | −2.53 | −16.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 14 | +2.95 | +36.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 13 | −7.36 | −53.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 14 | +1.38 | +2.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 3 | +1.05 | +102.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.28 | +97.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 12 | −3.92 | −30.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 11 | +1.91 | +23.8% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Rotherham · Home5 Aug 2023 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.04 | +1.04 |
| M2 | Ipswich · Away12 Aug 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −0.05 |
| M3 | Watford · Home19 Aug 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +1.41 |
| M4 | Millwall · Away26 Aug 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | +0.13 |
| M5 | Preston · Home2 Sep 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.74 | −1.62 |
| M6 | Norwich · Away16 Sep 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −2.60 |
| M7 | Huddersfield · Away20 Sep 2023 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.45 | −3.06 |
| M8 | Hull · Home24 Sep 2023 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.69 | −4.75 |
| M9 | Bristol City · Away30 Sep 2023 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.70 | −3.05 |
| M10 | Southampton · Home3 Oct 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.28 | −4.32 |
| M11 | Leicester · Away7 Oct 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.63 | −4.95 |
| M12 | Sunderland · Home21 Oct 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | −3.45 |
| M13 | Leeds · Home25 Oct 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.04 | −1.41 |
| M14 | Middlesbrough · Away28 Oct 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.11 | +0.70 |
| M15 | Cardiff · Home4 Nov 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.04 |
| M16 | Coventry · Away11 Nov 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 |
| M17 | Blackburn · Home25 Nov 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.58 | −1.70 |
| M18 | Queens Park Rangers · Away28 Nov 2023 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.39 | −3.10 |
| M19 | Plymouth · Away2 Dec 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −4.50 |
| M20 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home9 Dec 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.63 | −6.13 |
| M21 | Swansea · Home12 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.63 | −6.75 |
| M22 | West Bromwich Albion · Away17 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.08 | −6.67 |
| M23 | Millwall · Home23 Dec 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.69 | −7.36 |
| M24 | Birmingham · Away26 Dec 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −5.76 |
| M25 | Watford · Away29 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.07 | −5.83 |
| M26 | Ipswich · Home1 Jan 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.25 | −6.08 |
| M27 | Rotherham · Away13 Jan 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.28 | −4.80 |
| M28 | Birmingham · Home20 Jan 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.64 | −6.44 |
| M29 | Sunderland · Away27 Jan 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.03 | −7.47 |
| M30 | Leicester · Home3 Feb 2024 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.00 | −8.46 |
| M31 | Blackburn · Away10 Feb 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.22 | −9.69 |
| M32 | Queens Park Rangers · Home14 Feb 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.42 | −8.27 |
| M33 | Coventry · Home17 Feb 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | −9.56 |
| M34 | Cardiff · Away24 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.35 | −10.91 |
| M35 | Middlesbrough · Home2 Mar 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.54 | −9.37 |
| M36 | Leeds · Away5 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.55 | −9.93 |
| M37 | Preston · Away9 Mar 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | −8.20 |
| M38 | Norwich · Home16 Mar 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.38 | −9.57 |
| M39 | Hull · Away29 Mar 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.99 | −7.58 |
| M40 | Huddersfield · Home1 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | −8.27 |
| M41 | West Bromwich Albion · Home6 Apr 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.34 | −8.61 |
| M42 | Swansea · Away10 Apr 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.33 | −9.94 |
| M43 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away13 Apr 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −10.28 |
| M44 | Plymouth · Home20 Apr 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.10 | −9.18 |
| M45 | Southampton · Away27 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.08 | −7.09 |
| M46 | Bristol City · Home4 May 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.43 | −5.66 |
| Total | 56 | −5.66 | |||