Points
56Points expected by the market
66.21Gap
−10.21Yield
−18.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.14 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 24 | −3.14 | −2.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 21 | 25 | −4.13 | −8.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 6 | −1.80 | −57.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 24 | −1.42 | +4.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 8 | −3.14 | −24.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.93 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 1 | −1.14 | −100.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.72 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 17 | −0.99 | +0.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 6 | −0.87 | −52.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Ipswich · Home6 Aug 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −1.26 |
| M2 | Preston · Away12 Aug 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −2.54 |
| M3 | Rotherham · Home19 Aug 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.97 | −1.56 |
| M4 | Coventry · Away26 Aug 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.03 | −1.59 |
| M5 | Southampton · Home2 Sep 2023 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.71 | +0.11 |
| M6 | Queens Park Rangers · Away16 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.51 | +1.62 |
| M7 | Blackburn · Away20 Sep 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +3.40 |
| M8 | Cardiff · Home24 Sep 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.73 | +1.67 |
| M9 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away29 Sep 2023 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.42 | +3.09 |
| M10 | Watford · Home4 Oct 2023 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +4.44 |
| M11 | Middlesbrough · Home7 Oct 2023 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.51 | +2.92 |
| M12 | Stoke · Away21 Oct 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.22 | +1.71 |
| M13 | Leicester · Away24 Oct 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.71 | +0.99 |
| M14 | Norwich · Home28 Oct 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.29 | +2.28 |
| M15 | Swansea · Away4 Nov 2023 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | +1.82 |
| M16 | Birmingham · Home11 Nov 2023 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +2.84 |
| M17 | Plymouth · Away25 Nov 2023 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.72 | +1.12 |
| M18 | Huddersfield · Home29 Nov 2023 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.11 | −0.98 |
| M19 | Millwall · Away2 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.53 | −1.51 |
| M20 | West Bromwich Albion · Home9 Dec 2023 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.41 | −0.11 |
| M21 | Leeds · Home12 Dec 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | +1.75 |
| M22 | Bristol City · Away16 Dec 2023 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.46 | +0.29 |
| M23 | Coventry · Home23 Dec 2023 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.83 | −1.54 |
| M24 | Hull · Away26 Dec 2023 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.62 | +0.07 |
| M25 | Rotherham · Away29 Dec 2023 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.14 | −1.07 |
| M26 | Preston · Home1 Jan 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.04 | −0.03 |
| M27 | Ipswich · Away13 Jan 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −1.11 |
| M28 | Hull · Home19 Jan 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.81 | −2.92 |
| M29 | Stoke · Home27 Jan 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.30 | −1.62 |
| M30 | Middlesbrough · Away4 Feb 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | −1.70 |
| M31 | Plymouth · Home10 Feb 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.91 | −0.79 |
| M32 | Huddersfield · Away14 Feb 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.57 | −2.35 |
| M33 | Birmingham · Away17 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −3.69 |
| M34 | Swansea · Home24 Feb 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.62 | −5.31 |
| M35 | Norwich · Away2 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −6.26 |
| M36 | Leicester · Home5 Mar 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.93 | −7.19 |
| M37 | Southampton · Away9 Mar 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.50 | −7.69 |
| M38 | Queens Park Rangers · Home16 Mar 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.29 | −7.98 |
| M39 | Cardiff · Away29 Mar 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.74 | −6.24 |
| M40 | Blackburn · Home1 Apr 2024 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.58 | −7.82 |
| M41 | Bristol City · Home6 Apr 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.55 | −8.36 |
| M42 | Leeds · Away9 Apr 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.51 | −7.86 |
| M43 | West Bromwich Albion · Away13 Apr 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.98 | −5.88 |
| M44 | Millwall · Home20 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.60 | −7.49 |
| M45 | Watford · Away27 Apr 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.21 | −8.70 |
| M46 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home4 May 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.52 | −10.21 |
| Total | 56 | −10.21 | |||