Points
66Points expected by the market
62.43Gap
+3.57Yield
+14.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 27 | +6.02 | +44.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 26 | 25 | −9.44 | −35.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 14 | +6.99 | +133.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 27 | +6.02 | +44.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 10 | −3.82 | −55.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.17 | +391.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 15 | −5.62 | −23.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 11 | +4.82 | +96.6% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Derby · Home9 Aug 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.39 | +1.39 |
| M2 | Norwich · Away17 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.26 | +1.13 |
| M3 | Oxford · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.01 | +2.14 |
| M4 | Burnley · Away31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.09 | +2.05 |
| M5 | Bristol City · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.47 | +3.52 |
| M6 | Preston · Away22 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.44 | +3.08 |
| M7 | Queens Park Rangers · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +4.36 |
| M8 | Coventry · Away1 Oct 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.08 | +3.28 |
| M9 | Plymouth · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | +1.73 |
| M10 | Swansea · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.38 | +3.11 |
| M11 | West Bromwich Albion · Home23 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.36 | +2.75 |
| M12 | Watford · Away26 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | +1.52 |
| M13 | Sheffield United · Home2 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.34 | +0.18 |
| M14 | Stoke · Home6 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.62 | −1.43 |
| M15 | Cardiff · Away9 Nov 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.77 | +0.33 |
| M16 | Middlesbrough · Away27 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.13 | +2.46 |
| M17 | Leeds · Home30 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.17 | +4.63 |
| M18 | Hull · Away7 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.66 | +6.30 |
| M19 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away10 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +8.12 |
| M20 | Luton · Home14 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.44 | +9.57 |
| M21 | Millwall · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | +8.40 |
| M22 | Sunderland · Home26 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.26 | +8.14 |
| M23 | Hull · Home29 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.72 | +6.42 |
| M24 | Leeds · Away1 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.53 | +6.95 |
| M25 | Burnley · Home4 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.14 | +5.81 |
| M26 | Portsmouth · Home15 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.08 | +6.89 |
| M27 | Oxford · Away18 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.54 | +5.36 |
| M28 | Coventry · Home21 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.43 | +3.92 |
| M29 | Bristol City · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.89 | +3.03 |
| M30 | Preston · Home31 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.38 | +4.42 |
| M31 | Queens Park Rangers · Away4 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | +3.11 |
| M32 | West Bromwich Albion · Away12 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.06 | +5.17 |
| M33 | Plymouth · Home15 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.17 | +6.35 |
| M34 | Swansea · Away22 Feb 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.17 | +5.18 |
| M35 | Norwich · Home1 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | +4.74 |
| M36 | Derby · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.36 | +3.38 |
| M37 | Stoke · Away12 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.27 | +2.11 |
| M38 | Cardiff · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.75 | +0.36 |
| M39 | Portsmouth · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.16 | −0.80 |
| M40 | Middlesbrough · Home4 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.29 | −2.08 |
| M41 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home8 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.47 | −2.56 |
| M42 | Luton · Away12 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.15 | −0.41 |
| M43 | Millwall · Home18 Apr 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.40 | +0.99 |
| M44 | Sunderland · Away21 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.87 | +2.86 |
| M45 | Watford · Home26 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.01 | +3.87 |
| M46 | Sheffield United · Away3 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.31 | +3.57 |
| Total | 66 | +3.57 | |||