Points
100Points expected by the market
77.55Gap
+22.45Yield
+28.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.68 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 27 | 61 | +10.66 | +11.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 30 | +7.89 | +29.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.23 | +433.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.68 | +46.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 18 | 42 | +7.63 | +16.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 3 | −1.20 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 19 | +3.02 | +2.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 27 | +9.08 | +59.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.23 | +433.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Luton · Away12 Aug 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.60 | +1.60 |
| M2 | Cardiff · Home17 Aug 2024 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +2.57 |
| M3 | Sunderland · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.26 | +1.31 |
| M4 | Blackburn · Home31 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.68 |
| M5 | Leeds · Away14 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.23 | +2.91 |
| M6 | Portsmouth · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.85 | +3.76 |
| M7 | Oxford · Away28 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.59 | +3.17 |
| M8 | Plymouth · Home1 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.83 | +4.00 |
| M9 | Preston · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.85 | +3.14 |
| M10 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away19 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.72 | +4.86 |
| M11 | Hull · Away23 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | +4.39 |
| M12 | Queens Park Rangers · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.93 | +3.46 |
| M13 | Millwall · Away3 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | +2.14 |
| M14 | West Bromwich Albion · Away7 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.23 | +1.91 |
| M15 | Swansea · Home10 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.27 | +3.19 |
| M16 | Bristol City · Away23 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.62 | +4.81 |
| M17 | Coventry · Home26 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +6.22 |
| M18 | Stoke · Away30 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.47 | +7.68 |
| M19 | Middlesbrough · Home6 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | +7.24 |
| M20 | Derby · Home10 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.00 | +6.24 |
| M21 | Norwich · Away15 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | +7.85 |
| M22 | Watford · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.08 | +8.93 |
| M23 | Sheffield United · Away26 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +10.73 |
| M24 | Middlesbrough · Away29 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.32 | +10.41 |
| M25 | Stoke · Home1 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.12 | +9.29 |
| M26 | Blackburn · Away4 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +10.75 |
| M27 | Sunderland · Home17 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.58 | +10.17 |
| M28 | Plymouth · Away22 Jan 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +11.14 |
| M29 | Leeds · Home27 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.18 | +10.96 |
| M30 | Portsmouth · Away1 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.72 | +10.25 |
| M31 | Oxford · Home4 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.88 | +11.13 |
| M32 | Hull · Home12 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.06 | +12.19 |
| M33 | Preston · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.69 | +11.50 |
| M34 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home21 Feb 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.22 | +12.72 |
| M35 | Cardiff · Away4 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.30 | +14.03 |
| M36 | Luton · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +14.99 |
| M37 | West Bromwich Albion · Home11 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | +14.11 |
| M38 | Swansea · Away15 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +15.41 |
| M39 | Bristol City · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.11 | +16.52 |
| M40 | Coventry · Away5 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.42 | +17.94 |
| M41 | Derby · Away8 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.79 | +17.14 |
| M42 | Norwich · Home11 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.93 | +18.08 |
| M43 | Watford · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.12 | +19.19 |
| M44 | Sheffield United · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.24 | +20.43 |
| M45 | Queens Park Rangers · Away26 Apr 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +21.55 |
| M46 | Millwall · Home3 May 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.90 | +22.45 |
| Total | 100 | +22.45 | |||