Points
44Points expected by the market
54.19Gap
−10.19Yield
−45.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 11 | +0.75 | −0.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 19 | −6.43 | −42.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 21 | 14 | −4.51 | −59.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 11 | +0.75 | −0.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 16 | −3.18 | −22.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 0 | −2.85 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 3 | −3.25 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 14 | −1.66 | −53.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sunderland · Home10 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −1.27 |
| M2 | Burnley · Away17 Aug 2024 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.74 | −2.01 |
| M3 | Swansea · Away25 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.02 | −2.03 |
| M4 | Middlesbrough · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −3.09 |
| M5 | Derby · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.16 | −4.25 |
| M6 | Leeds · Home21 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.79 | −5.04 |
| M7 | Hull · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.92 | −5.96 |
| M8 | Millwall · Home1 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.84 | −4.12 |
| M9 | Bristol City · Away6 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.16 | −3.96 |
| M10 | Plymouth · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.36 | −2.60 |
| M11 | Portsmouth · Home22 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.18 | −1.42 |
| M12 | West Bromwich Albion · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.05 | −1.37 |
| M13 | Norwich · Home2 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.48 | +0.11 |
| M14 | Luton · Away6 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.95 | −0.84 |
| M15 | Blackburn · Home9 Nov 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.48 | −2.33 |
| M16 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away23 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −2.36 |
| M17 | Queens Park Rangers · Home27 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.69 | −4.05 |
| M18 | Coventry · Away30 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.15 | −3.90 |
| M19 | Preston · Home11 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −5.41 |
| M20 | Stoke · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.03 | −5.44 |
| M21 | Sheffield United · Home21 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −6.64 |
| M22 | Oxford · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.34 | −7.98 |
| M23 | Watford · Away29 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.07 | −5.91 |
| M24 | Coventry · Home1 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −6.07 |
| M25 | Middlesbrough · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.28 | −5.79 |
| M26 | Watford · Home14 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.53 | −6.32 |
| M27 | Swansea · Home18 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.66 | −4.67 |
| M28 | Millwall · Away21 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.07 | −4.74 |
| M29 | Derby · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.33 | −3.41 |
| M30 | Leeds · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 0-7 | 0 | −0.44 | −3.85 |
| M31 | Portsmouth · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −4.94 |
| M32 | Bristol City · Home15 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.23 | −5.17 |
| M33 | Plymouth · Away22 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −5.50 |
| M34 | Hull · Home25 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | −3.90 |
| M35 | Burnley · Home4 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −4.91 |
| M36 | Sunderland · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.69 | −5.60 |
| M37 | Luton · Home11 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −7.11 |
| M38 | Blackburn · Away15 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.04 | −5.07 |
| M39 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home29 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.31 | −5.39 |
| M40 | Queens Park Rangers · Away5 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | −5.56 |
| M41 | Preston · Away8 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.25 | −5.81 |
| M42 | Stoke · Home12 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.54 | −7.35 |
| M43 | Sheffield United · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.70 | −8.04 |
| M44 | Oxford · Home21 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | −8.88 |
| M45 | West Bromwich Albion · Home26 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.58 | −9.47 |
| M46 | Norwich · Away3 May 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −0.72 | −10.19 |
| Total | 44 | −10.19 | |||