Points
69Points expected by the market
69.92Gap
−0.92Yield
−3.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.64 | +29.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 19 | 35 | +0.41 | +7.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 28 | −1.31 | −15.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 3 | −0.67 | +2.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.64 | +29.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 32 | +2.82 | +15.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 10 | +3.16 | +50.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.90 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 3 | −2.41 | −34.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 17 | 18 | −4.47 | −34.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 3 | +0.24 | +36.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Stoke · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | −1.29 |
| M2 | Oxford · Home16 Aug 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.05 | −0.25 |
| M3 | Bristol City · Away24 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.58 |
| M4 | Norwich · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.71 | −2.29 |
| M5 | Watford · Away14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | −2.60 |
| M6 | Swansea · Home21 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.75 | −4.35 |
| M7 | Leeds · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.75 | −5.09 |
| M8 | Blackburn · Home1 Oct 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −3.74 |
| M9 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home5 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.89 | −5.63 |
| M10 | Preston · Away19 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | −7.10 |
| M11 | Queens Park Rangers · Away22 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | −7.55 |
| M12 | Luton · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.48 | −6.06 |
| M13 | Middlesbrough · Away2 Nov 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.06 | −4.00 |
| M14 | Derby · Home6 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.07 | −6.07 |
| M15 | Sunderland · Away9 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.12 | −6.19 |
| M16 | Sheffield United · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.42 | −6.61 |
| M17 | Burnley · Away26 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.12 | −7.73 |
| M18 | Cardiff · Home30 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.91 | −8.64 |
| M19 | Millwall · Away7 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | −7.05 |
| M20 | West Bromwich Albion · Away11 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −8.31 |
| M21 | Hull · Home14 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.10 | −7.21 |
| M22 | Portsmouth · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.82 | −9.03 |
| M23 | Plymouth · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.64 | −8.39 |
| M24 | Millwall · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.80 | −9.19 |
| M25 | Cardiff · Away1 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | −9.74 |
| M26 | Norwich · Away4 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −10.82 |
| M27 | Bristol City · Home18 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −9.29 |
| M28 | Blackburn · Away21 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.72 | −7.57 |
| M29 | Watford · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.14 | −6.42 |
| M30 | Swansea · Away1 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.63 | −4.79 |
| M31 | Leeds · Home5 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.90 | −5.69 |
| M32 | Queens Park Rangers · Home11 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.26 | −4.43 |
| M33 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | −2.65 |
| M34 | Preston · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.19 | −1.46 |
| M35 | Oxford · Away1 Mar 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.27 | −0.19 |
| M36 | Stoke · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.04 | +0.85 |
| M37 | Derby · Away11 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −0.75 |
| M38 | Sunderland · Home15 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.69 | +0.95 |
| M39 | Sheffield United · Away28 Mar 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.11 | −0.16 |
| M40 | Burnley · Home5 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −1.29 |
| M41 | Portsmouth · Home9 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.99 | −0.29 |
| M42 | Hull · Away14 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.64 |
| M43 | West Bromwich Albion · Home18 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +0.76 |
| M44 | Plymouth · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.85 | −1.09 |
| M45 | Luton · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | −2.33 |
| M46 | Middlesbrough · Home3 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | −0.92 |
| Total | 69 | −0.92 | |||