Points
50Points expected by the market
54.37Gap
−4.37Yield
−11.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 6 | −2.56 | −60.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 20 | 28 | +1.00 | +6.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 21 | 16 | −2.81 | −15.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 6 | −2.56 | −60.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 19 | +0.65 | +17.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 7 | +2.26 | +47.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 9 | +0.35 | −15.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 9 | −5.07 | −35.6% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Blackburn · Away9 Aug 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.11 | −1.11 |
| M2 | Middlesbrough · Home17 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.00 | +0.89 |
| M3 | Watford · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.96 | −0.06 |
| M4 | Bristol City · Home31 Aug 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.70 | +1.64 |
| M5 | Cardiff · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +3.09 |
| M6 | Sheffield United · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.88 | +2.21 |
| M7 | Norwich · Home28 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.30 | +0.90 |
| M8 | Sunderland · Away1 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.75 | +0.15 |
| M9 | Queens Park Rangers · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +1.60 |
| M10 | Millwall · Away19 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.02 | +1.62 |
| M11 | Oxford · Away22 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | +1.29 |
| M12 | Hull · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.73 |
| M13 | Stoke · Away2 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −0.48 |
| M14 | Coventry · Away6 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.30 | +1.82 |
| M15 | Plymouth · Home9 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.91 | +0.91 |
| M16 | Preston · Away23 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.72 |
| M17 | Swansea · Home27 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.41 | −0.70 |
| M18 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home1 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.43 | −2.12 |
| M19 | Leeds · Away7 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.51 | −2.63 |
| M20 | Burnley · Away10 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.27 | −2.36 |
| M21 | Portsmouth · Home13 Dec 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.28 | −1.07 |
| M22 | Luton · Away20 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.06 | −2.13 |
| M23 | West Bromwich Albion · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.72 | −0.41 |
| M24 | Leeds · Home29 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.75 | −1.16 |
| M25 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away1 Jan 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.02 | −2.18 |
| M26 | Bristol City · Away4 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.88 | −3.06 |
| M27 | Watford · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.68 | −4.74 |
| M28 | Sunderland · Home21 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −5.73 |
| M29 | Cardiff · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.03 | −6.76 |
| M30 | Sheffield United · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | −7.87 |
| M31 | Norwich · Away8 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.13 | −7.74 |
| M32 | Oxford · Home11 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.62 | −8.35 |
| M33 | Queens Park Rangers · Away14 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.00 | −9.35 |
| M34 | Millwall · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.45 | −10.80 |
| M35 | Middlesbrough · Away1 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.68 | −11.48 |
| M36 | Blackburn · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | −9.81 |
| M37 | Coventry · Home11 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.89 | −7.91 |
| M38 | Plymouth · Away15 Mar 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.54 | −6.37 |
| M39 | Preston · Home2 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.39 | −4.98 |
| M40 | Swansea · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −6.04 |
| M41 | Burnley · Home8 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.10 | −5.94 |
| M42 | Portsmouth · Away12 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.20 | −6.13 |
| M43 | Luton · Home18 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | −7.60 |
| M44 | West Bromwich Albion · Away21 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.02 | −5.58 |
| M45 | Hull · Away26 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.85 | −3.73 |
| M46 | Stoke · Home3 May 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.64 | −4.37 |
| Total | 50 | −4.37 | |||