Points
49Points expected by the market
59.00Gap
−10.00Yield
−18.5%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 13 | +1.71 | +16.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 27 | 18 | −18.25 | −68.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 18 | +6.54 | +68.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 6 | 13 | +1.71 | +16.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 9 | −13.13 | −84.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 9 | −5.12 | −44.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 17 | +6.21 | +83.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Bristol City · Home10 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| M2 | Plymouth · Away17 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.78 |
| M3 | Millwall · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.49 | −1.27 |
| M4 | Leeds · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.58 | −1.85 |
| M5 | Sheffield United · Home13 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.15 | −3.00 |
| M6 | Stoke · Away20 Sep 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.88 | −1.11 |
| M7 | Cardiff · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.17 | +0.06 |
| M8 | Queens Park Rangers · Away1 Oct 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.68 | +1.74 |
| M9 | Norwich · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.08 | +0.66 |
| M10 | Sunderland · Home20 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.26 | −0.60 |
| M11 | Burnley · Home23 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.84 |
| M12 | Derby · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.16 | −1.00 |
| M13 | Portsmouth · Home2 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.97 | −1.97 |
| M14 | Oxford · Away5 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.45 | −3.42 |
| M15 | West Bromwich Albion · Home10 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.25 | −4.67 |
| M16 | Luton · Away23 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.09 | −5.76 |
| M17 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home26 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.48 | −7.24 |
| M18 | Middlesbrough · Away30 Nov 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.81 | −8.05 |
| M19 | Blackburn · Home7 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.39 | −9.43 |
| M20 | Watford · Home11 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.48 | −9.91 |
| M21 | Coventry · Away14 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.86 | −10.77 |
| M22 | Swansea · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.55 | −9.22 |
| M23 | Preston · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.18 | −10.40 |
| M24 | Blackburn · Away29 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.99 | −8.41 |
| M25 | Middlesbrough · Home1 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.20 | −9.61 |
| M26 | Leeds · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.32 | −9.28 |
| M27 | Millwall · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.94 | −7.35 |
| M28 | Queens Park Rangers · Home21 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −8.93 |
| M29 | Sheffield United · Away24 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.18 | −6.75 |
| M30 | Stoke · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.73 | −8.48 |
| M31 | Burnley · Away12 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.78 | −9.27 |
| M32 | Norwich · Home15 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | −9.71 |
| M33 | Sunderland · Away22 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.26 | −7.45 |
| M34 | Cardiff · Away25 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −8.75 |
| M35 | Plymouth · Home4 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.99 | −7.76 |
| M36 | Bristol City · Away8 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.04 | −7.80 |
| M37 | Oxford · Home12 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.03 | −6.76 |
| M38 | West Bromwich Albion · Away15 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.06 | −6.70 |
| M39 | Luton · Home29 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.52 | −8.22 |
| M40 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away5 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.94 | −6.28 |
| M41 | Watford · Away8 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.34 | −7.62 |
| M42 | Coventry · Home14 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.36 | −7.98 |
| M43 | Swansea · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.15 | −9.13 |
| M44 | Preston · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.22 | −7.91 |
| M45 | Derby · Home26 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.53 | −9.44 |
| M46 | Portsmouth · Away3 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | −10.00 |
| Total | 49 | −10.00 | |||