Points
100Points expected by the market
97.03Gap
+2.97Yield
−6.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 24 | 59 | +2.69 | −1.6% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 39 | +1.32 | −3.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 2 | −1.03 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 18 | 46 | +3.30 | +1.2% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 12 | +2.24 | +35.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 13 | −0.61 | −10.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 27 | −0.93 | −16.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 2 | −1.03 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Portsmouth · Home10 Aug 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.42 | −1.42 |
| M2 | West Bromwich Albion · Away17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.64 | −2.06 |
| M3 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away23 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.27 | −0.78 |
| M4 | Hull · Home31 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.77 | −0.01 |
| M5 | Burnley · Home14 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.99 | −2.00 |
| M6 | Cardiff · Away21 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.04 | −0.96 |
| M7 | Coventry · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +0.01 |
| M8 | Norwich · Away1 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.63 |
| M9 | Sunderland · Away4 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.51 | −1.15 |
| M10 | Sheffield United · Home18 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.22 | +0.07 |
| M11 | Watford · Home22 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.66 | +0.73 |
| M12 | Bristol City · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.03 |
| M13 | Plymouth · Home2 Nov 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.38 | +0.35 |
| M14 | Millwall · Away6 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.82 | −1.48 |
| M15 | Queens Park Rangers · Home9 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.59 | −0.89 |
| M16 | Swansea · Away24 Nov 2024 | W 4-3 | 3 | +1.20 | +0.31 |
| M17 | Luton · Home27 Nov 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.82 | +1.14 |
| M18 | Blackburn · Away30 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.92 | −0.79 |
| M19 | Derby · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.71 | −0.08 |
| M20 | Middlesbrough · Home10 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.11 | +1.04 |
| M21 | Preston · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.04 | 0.00 |
| M22 | Oxford · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.43 | +0.42 |
| M23 | Stoke · Away26 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.85 | +1.27 |
| M24 | Derby · Away29 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.99 | +2.26 |
| M25 | Blackburn · Home1 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.35 | +0.91 |
| M26 | Hull · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.09 | −0.19 |
| M27 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home19 Jan 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.76 | +0.58 |
| M28 | Norwich · Home22 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.67 | +1.25 |
| M29 | Burnley · Away27 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.73 |
| M30 | Cardiff · Home1 Feb 2025 | W 7-0 | 3 | +0.62 | +1.35 |
| M31 | Coventry · Away5 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.16 | +2.51 |
| M32 | Watford · Away11 Feb 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.70 | +3.22 |
| M33 | Sunderland · Home17 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.93 | +4.14 |
| M34 | Sheffield United · Away24 Feb 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.20 | +5.34 |
| M35 | West Bromwich Albion · Home1 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.32 | +4.02 |
| M36 | Portsmouth · Away9 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.22 | +1.80 |
| M37 | Millwall · Home12 Mar 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.52 | +2.32 |
| M38 | Queens Park Rangers · Away15 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.21 | +1.11 |
| M39 | Swansea · Home29 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.43 | −0.31 |
| M40 | Luton · Away5 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.00 | −1.31 |
| M41 | Middlesbrough · Away8 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.14 | −0.17 |
| M42 | Preston · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.55 | +0.37 |
| M43 | Oxford · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.68 | +1.06 |
| M44 | Stoke · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 6-0 | 3 | +0.59 | +1.65 |
| M45 | Bristol City · Home28 Apr 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.75 | +2.39 |
| M46 | Plymouth · Away3 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.58 | +2.97 |
| Total | 100 | +2.97 | |||