Points
49Points expected by the market
62.63Gap
−13.63Yield
−31.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 25 | −1.08 | −6.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 22 | −7.01 | −20.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 2 | −5.55 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 24 | +1.30 | +8.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 9 | −3.50 | −45.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 1 | −2.38 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 13 | −3.50 | −3.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 1 | −5.79 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Burnley · Home12 Aug 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.32 | −1.32 |
| M2 | Portsmouth · Away17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.66 | −1.98 |
| M3 | Preston · Away24 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.47 | −3.45 |
| M4 | Queens Park Rangers · Home30 Aug 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.75 | −5.20 |
| M5 | Millwall · Away14 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.75 | −3.45 |
| M6 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.28 | −2.17 |
| M7 | Plymouth · Away27 Sep 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.72 | −3.89 |
| M8 | Oxford · Home1 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.94 | −4.84 |
| M9 | Sheffield United · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.02 | −5.85 |
| M10 | Watford · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.31 | −4.54 |
| M11 | Sunderland · Home23 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −5.94 |
| M12 | Coventry · Away26 Oct 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −7.15 |
| M13 | West Bromwich Albion · Home1 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −7.54 |
| M14 | Cardiff · Home6 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.21 | −6.32 |
| M15 | Middlesbrough · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.75 | −7.07 |
| M16 | Hull · Home23 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.38 | −5.69 |
| M17 | Leeds · Away27 Nov 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.60 | −6.30 |
| M18 | Norwich · Away30 Nov 2024 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.12 | −7.41 |
| M19 | Swansea · Home7 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | −7.92 |
| M20 | Stoke · Home10 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.27 | −6.65 |
| M21 | Blackburn · Away14 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −7.81 |
| M22 | Derby · Home20 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | −6.45 |
| M23 | Bristol City · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −7.51 |
| M24 | Swansea · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.04 | −8.54 |
| M25 | Norwich · Home1 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −9.89 |
| M26 | Queens Park Rangers · Away6 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.23 | −11.13 |
| M27 | Preston · Home18 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.71 | −11.83 |
| M28 | Oxford · Away21 Jan 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.51 | −13.34 |
| M29 | Millwall · Home25 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.73 | −15.08 |
| M30 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away1 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | 0.00 | −15.08 |
| M31 | Sunderland · Away12 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.62 | −15.70 |
| M32 | Sheffield United · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.29 | −17.00 |
| M33 | Plymouth · Home19 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.81 | −17.81 |
| M34 | Watford · Away23 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.20 | −19.01 |
| M35 | Portsmouth · Home1 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −17.68 |
| M36 | Burnley · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.71 | −18.39 |
| M37 | Cardiff · Away11 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.81 | −16.58 |
| M38 | Middlesbrough · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.34 | −16.92 |
| M39 | Hull · Away29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.81 | −15.11 |
| M40 | Leeds · Home5 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.24 | −14.87 |
| M41 | Stoke · Away8 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | −15.12 |
| M42 | Blackburn · Home12 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.88 | −17.01 |
| M43 | Derby · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.79 | −15.22 |
| M44 | Bristol City · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.58 | −13.64 |
| M45 | Coventry · Home26 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.53 | −12.11 |
| M46 | West Bromwich Albion · Away3 May 2025 | L 3-5 | 0 | −1.52 | −13.63 |
| Total | 49 | −13.63 | |||