Points
64Points expected by the market
77.50Gap
−13.50Yield
−26.7%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 4 | −0.66 | −33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 26 | 44 | −5.22 | −13.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 16 | −5.85 | −38.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.77 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 4 | −0.66 | −33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 18 | 34 | −1.00 | −6.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 1 | −1.72 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.90 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 10 | −4.22 | −30.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 15 | −4.13 | −29.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.86 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Swansea · Home10 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +1.05 |
| M2 | Derby · Away17 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.74 | −0.69 |
| M3 | Portsmouth · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.37 | −2.06 |
| M4 | Cardiff · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.32 | −0.73 |
| M5 | Preston · Home14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.09 | −1.83 |
| M6 | Sunderland · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.36 | −3.18 |
| M7 | Stoke · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.00 | −2.18 |
| M8 | West Bromwich Albion · Away1 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | −0.42 |
| M9 | Watford · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.68 | −2.10 |
| M10 | Bristol City · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.97 | −4.06 |
| M11 | Sheffield United · Home23 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.26 | −2.80 |
| M12 | Norwich · Away27 Oct 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.46 | −3.26 |
| M13 | Coventry · Home2 Nov 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.82 | −5.08 |
| M14 | Queens Park Rangers · Away5 Nov 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.20 | −3.88 |
| M15 | Luton · Home9 Nov 2024 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.97 | −2.91 |
| M16 | Oxford · Away23 Nov 2024 | W 6-2 | 3 | +1.12 | −1.79 |
| M17 | Blackburn · Home27 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.89 | −3.68 |
| M18 | Hull · Home30 Nov 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.04 | −2.64 |
| M19 | Burnley · Away6 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.26 | −2.90 |
| M20 | Leeds · Away10 Dec 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.86 | −3.76 |
| M21 | Millwall · Home14 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.02 | −2.74 |
| M22 | Plymouth · Away21 Dec 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.08 | −3.82 |
| M23 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home26 Dec 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.82 | −4.64 |
| M24 | Burnley · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.38 | −5.02 |
| M25 | Hull · Away1 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.47 | −3.55 |
| M26 | Cardiff · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.05 | −4.61 |
| M27 | Portsmouth · Away18 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.77 | −6.37 |
| M28 | West Bromwich Albion · Home21 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.24 | −5.13 |
| M29 | Preston · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.60 | −6.73 |
| M30 | Sunderland · Home3 Feb 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.34 | −8.07 |
| M31 | Sheffield United · Away12 Feb 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.16 | −9.23 |
| M32 | Watford · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.00 | −11.23 |
| M33 | Bristol City · Away21 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.22 | −12.45 |
| M34 | Stoke · Away25 Feb 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.44 | −11.01 |
| M35 | Derby · Home1 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.91 | −10.09 |
| M36 | Swansea · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.37 | −11.46 |
| M37 | Queens Park Rangers · Home11 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.21 | −10.25 |
| M38 | Luton · Away15 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.38 | −10.63 |
| M39 | Oxford · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.93 | −9.70 |
| M40 | Blackburn · Away4 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.57 | −8.14 |
| M41 | Leeds · Home8 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.90 | −9.04 |
| M42 | Millwall · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | −10.54 |
| M43 | Plymouth · Home18 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.71 | −9.84 |
| M44 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.51 | −11.35 |
| M45 | Norwich · Home26 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.99 | −12.34 |
| M46 | Coventry · Away3 May 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −13.50 |
| Total | 64 | −13.50 | |||