Points
57Points expected by the market
66.22Gap
−9.22Yield
−33.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.81 | +43.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 27 | −1.43 | −2.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 21 | −5.37 | −47.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 6 | −3.23 | −63.9% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.81 | +43.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 27 | +2.04 | +11.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 7 | −3.06 | −67.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.08 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 0 | −3.47 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 14 | −2.31 | −35.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 5 | −3.14 | −59.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Oxford · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.49 | −1.49 |
| M2 | Blackburn · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.46 | −1.96 |
| M3 | Sheffield United · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.36 | −2.32 |
| M4 | Coventry · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.96 | −0.35 |
| M5 | Swansea · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | −1.59 |
| M6 | Watford · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −0.24 |
| M7 | Derby · Away28 Sep 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.59 | +1.35 |
| M8 | Leeds · Home1 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | +1.26 |
| M9 | Hull · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.33 | +2.59 |
| M10 | Stoke · Away19 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | +2.25 |
| M11 | Preston · Away22 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.41 | +1.84 |
| M12 | Middlesbrough · Home27 Oct 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.28 | +1.57 |
| M13 | Cardiff · Away2 Nov 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.21 | +0.35 |
| M14 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away5 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −0.74 |
| M15 | Bristol City · Home9 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.59 | −2.33 |
| M16 | West Bromwich Albion · Away23 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.04 | −2.29 |
| M17 | Plymouth · Home26 Nov 2024 | W 6-1 | 3 | +0.81 | −1.48 |
| M18 | Luton · Home30 Nov 2024 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.38 | −0.10 |
| M19 | Queens Park Rangers · Away7 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.63 | −1.73 |
| M20 | Portsmouth · Away10 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.55 | −2.28 |
| M21 | Burnley · Home15 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | −3.59 |
| M22 | Sunderland · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | −4.55 |
| M23 | Millwall · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.45 | −3.10 |
| M24 | Queens Park Rangers · Home29 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.96 | −4.06 |
| M25 | Luton · Away1 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.63 | −2.43 |
| M26 | Coventry · Home4 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −1.08 |
| M27 | Sheffield United · Away18 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.03 | −2.10 |
| M28 | Leeds · Away22 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.49 | −2.59 |
| M29 | Swansea · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.37 | −1.22 |
| M30 | Watford · Away1 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | +0.38 |
| M31 | Derby · Home8 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | −0.49 |
| M32 | Preston · Home11 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.92 | −2.41 |
| M33 | Hull · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.28 | −2.69 |
| M34 | Stoke · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.09 | −1.60 |
| M35 | Blackburn · Away1 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −1.88 |
| M36 | Oxford · Home7 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.02 | −2.90 |
| M37 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home11 Mar 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.55 | −4.45 |
| M38 | Bristol City · Away14 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.08 | −5.53 |
| M39 | West Bromwich Albion · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.35 | −4.18 |
| M40 | Plymouth · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.84 | −6.02 |
| M41 | Sunderland · Home8 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.56 | −6.57 |
| M42 | Burnley · Away11 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.70 | −7.27 |
| M43 | Portsmouth · Home18 Apr 2025 | L 3-5 | 0 | −1.75 | −9.02 |
| M44 | Millwall · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.33 | −10.35 |
| M45 | Middlesbrough · Away26 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.21 | −10.14 |
| M46 | Cardiff · Home3 May 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +0.93 | −9.22 |
| Total | 57 | −9.22 | |||