Points
46Points expected by the market
40.22Gap
+5.78Yield
+4.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 11 | −3.05 | −49.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 35 | 35 | +8.84 | +21.7% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 11 | −1.95 | −44.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 23 | +12.17 | +145.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.10 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 22 | 12 | −3.33 | −51.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away11 Aug 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| M2 | Hull · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.28 | −1.14 |
| M3 | Queens Park Rangers · Away24 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.96 |
| M4 | Stoke · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.14 | −2.10 |
| M5 | Sunderland · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +2.19 | +0.08 |
| M6 | West Bromwich Albion · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.57 | −0.49 |
| M7 | Luton · Home27 Sep 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.97 | +1.49 |
| M8 | Burnley · Away1 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.63 | +0.86 |
| M9 | Blackburn · Home5 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.82 | +2.67 |
| M10 | Cardiff · Away19 Oct 2024 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.10 | +1.57 |
| M11 | Millwall · Away23 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.75 | +0.82 |
| M12 | Preston · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.60 |
| M13 | Leeds · Away2 Nov 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.27 | +0.33 |
| M14 | Portsmouth · Home5 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +1.87 |
| M15 | Derby · Away9 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.15 | +2.02 |
| M16 | Watford · Home22 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.16 | +1.87 |
| M17 | Norwich · Away26 Nov 2024 | L 1-6 | 0 | −0.61 | +1.26 |
| M18 | Bristol City · Away30 Nov 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.55 | +0.70 |
| M19 | Swansea · Home10 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −0.17 |
| M20 | Sheffield United · Away14 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.52 | −0.69 |
| M21 | Middlesbrough · Home21 Dec 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.40 |
| M22 | Coventry · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.48 | −0.89 |
| M23 | Oxford · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.99 | −1.87 |
| M24 | Bristol City · Home1 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.14 | −1.73 |
| M25 | Stoke · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.20 | −1.53 |
| M26 | Oxford · Home14 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.57 | −2.10 |
| M27 | Queens Park Rangers · Home18 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.34 | −3.44 |
| M28 | Burnley · Home22 Jan 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.73 | −4.17 |
| M29 | Sunderland · Away25 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.62 | −3.55 |
| M30 | West Bromwich Albion · Home1 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.15 | −1.40 |
| M31 | Millwall · Home12 Feb 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.90 | +0.50 |
| M32 | Blackburn · Away15 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.91 | −0.41 |
| M33 | Luton · Away19 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.32 |
| M34 | Cardiff · Home22 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.70 |
| M35 | Hull · Away4 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −1.43 |
| M36 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home8 Mar 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.96 | −2.39 |
| M37 | Portsmouth · Away12 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.29 | −0.10 |
| M38 | Derby · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.22 | −1.32 |
| M39 | Watford · Away29 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.24 | −1.08 |
| M40 | Norwich · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.09 | +1.01 |
| M41 | Swansea · Away9 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.82 | +0.20 |
| M42 | Sheffield United · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.33 | +2.53 |
| M43 | Middlesbrough · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.53 | +2.00 |
| M44 | Coventry · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +2.10 | +4.09 |
| M45 | Preston · Away26 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.12 | +6.21 |
| M46 | Leeds · Home3 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.43 | +5.78 |
| Total | 46 | +5.78 | |||