Points
54Points expected by the market
48.87Gap
+5.13Yield
+4.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.50 | +31.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 23 | +3.55 | +9.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 28 | 25 | +1.07 | −1.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 6 | +0.50 | +31.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 20 | +5.34 | +21.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 14 | +5.52 | +116.4% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 3 | −1.79 | −23.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 19 | 11 | −4.44 | −57.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Leeds · Away10 Aug 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.58 |
| M2 | Luton · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.49 |
| M3 | Middlesbrough · Away24 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.54 | +1.03 |
| M4 | Sunderland · Home31 Aug 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.03 | 0.00 |
| M5 | West Bromwich Albion · Home15 Sep 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| M6 | Burnley · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.64 | −1.60 |
| M7 | Sheffield United · Home28 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.09 | −1.51 |
| M8 | Stoke · Away2 Oct 2024 | L 1-6 | 0 | −0.93 | −2.45 |
| M9 | Oxford · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | −2.83 |
| M10 | Queens Park Rangers · Away19 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.06 | −0.78 |
| M11 | Cardiff · Away22 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.92 | −1.70 |
| M12 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home25 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | −2.75 |
| M13 | Hull · Away2 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | −2.55 |
| M14 | Plymouth · Away5 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.27 | −3.82 |
| M15 | Preston · Home9 Nov 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.70 | −2.11 |
| M16 | Swansea · Away30 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.07 | −2.04 |
| M17 | Bristol City · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.92 | −0.12 |
| M18 | Norwich · Home10 Dec 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.30 |
| M19 | Derby · Away13 Dec 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.00 | −1.29 |
| M20 | Coventry · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 4-1 | 3 | +2.08 | +0.78 |
| M21 | Watford · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −0.16 |
| M22 | Bristol City · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −0.92 |
| M23 | Swansea · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.84 | +0.92 |
| M24 | Sunderland · Away5 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.67 | +0.25 |
| M25 | Blackburn · Away15 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.83 | −0.58 |
| M26 | Middlesbrough · Home18 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.03 | +1.45 |
| M27 | Stoke · Home22 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.54 | +2.99 |
| M28 | West Bromwich Albion · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −0.73 | +2.26 |
| M29 | Millwall · Home28 Jan 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | +0.76 |
| M30 | Burnley · Home1 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.78 |
| M31 | Sheffield United · Away8 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.71 | +0.07 |
| M32 | Cardiff · Home11 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.38 | +1.44 |
| M33 | Oxford · Away15 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.78 | +3.22 |
| M34 | Queens Park Rangers · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | +4.82 |
| M35 | Luton · Away1 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | +3.78 |
| M36 | Leeds · Home9 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.43 | +6.20 |
| M37 | Plymouth · Home12 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.04 | +4.16 |
| M38 | Preston · Away15 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.15 | +3.01 |
| M39 | Blackburn · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.44 | +4.45 |
| M40 | Millwall · Away5 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.14 | +3.31 |
| M41 | Coventry · Away9 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.77 | +2.54 |
| M42 | Derby · Home12 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.48 | +2.07 |
| M43 | Norwich · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 5-3 | 3 | +2.01 | +4.08 |
| M44 | Watford · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.17 | +5.25 |
| M45 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.06 | +5.31 |
| M46 | Hull · Home3 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.18 | +5.13 |
| Total | 54 | +5.13 | |||