Points
50Points expected by the market
54.47Gap
−4.47Yield
−32.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 1 | −2.61 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 34 | +1.21 | −6.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 15 | −3.07 | −56.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 1 | −2.61 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 30 | +3.96 | +1.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 2 | +0.28 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 4 | −2.74 | −35.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 13 | −3.36 | −51.9% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sheffield United · Home9 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.17 | −1.17 |
| M2 | Swansea · Away17 Aug 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.02 | −2.20 |
| M3 | Luton · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.74 | −0.45 |
| M4 | Oxford · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.35 | −1.80 |
| M5 | Middlesbrough · Away14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | −1.50 |
| M6 | Blackburn · Home22 Sep 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.27 | −1.77 |
| M7 | Millwall · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.97 | −2.74 |
| M8 | Watford · Home2 Oct 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.58 | −1.16 |
| M9 | Burnley · Away5 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.13 | −1.03 |
| M10 | Coventry · Home19 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.76 | +0.73 |
| M11 | Norwich · Home22 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.44 |
| M12 | Plymouth · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.06 |
| M13 | Bristol City · Home2 Nov 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.41 | −1.47 |
| M14 | Sunderland · Home6 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.34 | −1.81 |
| M15 | Portsmouth · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −3.21 |
| M16 | Derby · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.50 | −3.71 |
| M17 | Stoke · Away26 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.01 | −3.72 |
| M18 | West Bromwich Albion · Home30 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.22 | −3.94 |
| M19 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away7 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.04 | −3.98 |
| M20 | Cardiff · Away11 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.82 | −2.16 |
| M21 | Leeds · Home14 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.28 | −1.88 |
| M22 | Queens Park Rangers · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −3.20 |
| M23 | Hull · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.47 | −1.73 |
| M24 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home29 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.68 | −0.05 |
| M25 | West Bromwich Albion · Away1 Jan 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.97 | −1.02 |
| M26 | Oxford · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.75 | −1.77 |
| M27 | Luton · Away18 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.01 | −1.76 |
| M28 | Watford · Away21 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.93 | +0.17 |
| M29 | Middlesbrough · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.88 | +2.05 |
| M30 | Blackburn · Away31 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.08 | +0.97 |
| M31 | Norwich · Away11 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.18 | +3.15 |
| M32 | Burnley · Home15 Feb 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | 0.00 | +3.15 |
| M33 | Millwall · Home18 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.49 | +2.66 |
| M34 | Coventry · Away22 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.92 | +1.74 |
| M35 | Swansea · Home4 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | +1.27 |
| M36 | Sheffield United · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.79 | +0.48 |
| M37 | Sunderland · Away11 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.74 |
| M38 | Portsmouth · Home15 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.45 | +2.20 |
| M39 | Derby · Away2 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.07 | +1.13 |
| M40 | Stoke · Home5 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.67 |
| M41 | Cardiff · Home8 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.23 |
| M42 | Leeds · Away12 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.38 | −0.16 |
| M43 | Queens Park Rangers · Home18 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.54 | −1.70 |
| M44 | Hull · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −2.64 |
| M45 | Plymouth · Home26 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.85 | −4.49 |
| M46 | Bristol City · Away3 May 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.03 | −4.47 |
| Total | 50 | −4.47 | |||