Points
56Points expected by the market
53.57Gap
+2.43Yield
−3.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | −0.21 | −2.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 33 | +4.26 | +19.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 20 | 16 | −1.61 | −28.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 7 | −0.21 | −2.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 20 | −0.22 | −8.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 2 | −1.42 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 13 | +4.48 | +79.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 16 | 14 | −0.19 | −10.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | West Bromwich Albion · Home10 Aug 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.36 | −1.36 |
| M2 | Sheffield United · Away17 Aug 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.17 | −1.18 |
| M3 | Plymouth · Home24 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.94 | −2.12 |
| M4 | Luton · Away30 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.01 | −0.11 |
| M5 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.28 |
| M6 | Millwall · Home21 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.78 |
| M7 | Blackburn · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −1.79 |
| M8 | Hull · Home1 Oct 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −3.19 |
| M9 | Derby · Away5 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.16 | −4.35 |
| M10 | Portsmouth · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.79 | −6.14 |
| M11 | Coventry · Home22 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −6.42 |
| M12 | Burnley · Away26 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.19 | −6.22 |
| M13 | Sunderland · Home2 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.04 | −6.26 |
| M14 | Middlesbrough · Home5 Nov 2024 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.95 | −7.21 |
| M15 | Leeds · Away9 Nov 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.42 | −7.63 |
| M16 | Stoke · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | −7.93 |
| M17 | Cardiff · Away27 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.97 | −5.96 |
| M18 | Watford · Away30 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.09 | −5.86 |
| M19 | Norwich · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.90 | −3.96 |
| M20 | Oxford · Home11 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.23 | −2.73 |
| M21 | Bristol City · Away14 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.12 | −2.61 |
| M22 | Preston · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.63 | −0.98 |
| M23 | Swansea · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.94 | −1.92 |
| M24 | Norwich · Away29 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.20 | −1.72 |
| M25 | Watford · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.59 | −0.13 |
| M26 | Luton · Home6 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.53 | +1.40 |
| M27 | Plymouth · Away18 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.63 | +3.03 |
| M28 | Hull · Away21 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.88 | +4.92 |
| M29 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home25 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.44 | +3.47 |
| M30 | Millwall · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.05 | +2.42 |
| M31 | Blackburn · Home4 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.61 | +4.02 |
| M32 | Coventry · Away11 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | +3.03 |
| M33 | Derby · Home14 Feb 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +4.33 |
| M34 | Portsmouth · Away22 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | +3.02 |
| M35 | Sheffield United · Home1 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.15 | +1.87 |
| M36 | West Bromwich Albion · Away8 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.86 | +1.01 |
| M37 | Middlesbrough · Away11 Mar 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | +0.07 |
| M38 | Leeds · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.49 |
| M39 | Stoke · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.09 | −0.60 |
| M40 | Cardiff · Home5 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.53 | −1.14 |
| M41 | Oxford · Away9 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.75 | +0.62 |
| M42 | Bristol City · Home12 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.42 |
| M43 | Preston · Away18 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.85 | +2.28 |
| M44 | Swansea · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.35 | +0.92 |
| M45 | Burnley · Home26 Apr 2025 | L 0-5 | 0 | −0.85 | +0.08 |
| M46 | Sunderland · Away3 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.36 | +2.43 |
| Total | 56 | +2.43 | |||