Points
58Points expected by the market
64.09Gap
−6.09Yield
−15.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 26 | −0.19 | −8.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 28 | −2.64 | −10.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 4 | −3.26 | −40.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 17 | −4.09 | −36.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 9 | −5.37 | −42.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.00 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 9 | +3.90 | +100.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 19 | +2.73 | +14.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 4 | −2.25 | −31.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Plymouth · Home11 Aug 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| M2 | Sunderland · Away18 Aug 2024 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.15 | −0.05 |
| M3 | Leeds · Home23 Aug 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.00 | −1.05 |
| M4 | Millwall · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.22 | −2.27 |
| M5 | Queens Park Rangers · Home14 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | −2.82 |
| M6 | Luton · Away21 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −3.83 |
| M7 | West Bromwich Albion · Home28 Sep 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.70 | −2.14 |
| M8 | Bristol City · Away2 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | −2.23 |
| M9 | Coventry · Away5 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.15 | −0.08 |
| M10 | Burnley · Home19 Oct 2024 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.41 | −1.49 |
| M11 | Swansea · Home22 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.67 | −2.16 |
| M12 | Portsmouth · Away25 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.32 | −0.84 |
| M13 | Watford · Home2 Nov 2024 | L 2-6 | 0 | −1.79 | −2.63 |
| M14 | Norwich · Home5 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.38 | −1.26 |
| M15 | Sheffield United · Away10 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.86 | −2.12 |
| M16 | Cardiff · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.69 | −2.81 |
| M17 | Hull · Away26 Nov 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.77 | −1.04 |
| M18 | Derby · Away1 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.73 | +0.70 |
| M19 | Preston · Home7 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | +0.03 |
| M20 | Blackburn · Home10 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.54 | −1.51 |
| M21 | Oxford · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.35 | −0.16 |
| M22 | Stoke · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.15 | +0.99 |
| M23 | Middlesbrough · Away26 Dec 2024 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.07 | +1.06 |
| M24 | Preston · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.38 | −0.32 |
| M25 | Derby · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.32 | +1.00 |
| M26 | Millwall · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.45 |
| M27 | Leeds · Away19 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.57 | −0.11 |
| M28 | Bristol City · Home22 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.62 |
| M29 | Queens Park Rangers · Away25 Jan 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.74 | +1.12 |
| M30 | Luton · Home1 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.71 | +0.41 |
| M31 | West Bromwich Albion · Away8 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −0.68 |
| M32 | Swansea · Away12 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +0.96 |
| M33 | Coventry · Home15 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.50 | −0.54 |
| M34 | Burnley · Away21 Feb 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.93 | −1.48 |
| M35 | Sunderland · Home28 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.34 | −2.81 |
| M36 | Plymouth · Away8 Mar 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.22 | −1.59 |
| M37 | Norwich · Away11 Mar 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.84 | +0.25 |
| M38 | Sheffield United · Home16 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.45 | −1.20 |
| M39 | Cardiff · Away29 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −1.61 |
| M40 | Hull · Home5 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.66 | −3.27 |
| M41 | Blackburn · Away8 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.23 | −3.50 |
| M42 | Oxford · Home12 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.02 | −5.53 |
| M43 | Stoke · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.14 | −6.67 |
| M44 | Middlesbrough · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.77 | −4.89 |
| M45 | Portsmouth · Home26 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.82 | −5.72 |
| M46 | Watford · Away3 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −6.09 |
| Total | 58 | −6.09 | |||