Points
76Points expected by the market
74.21Gap
+1.79Yield
−2.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 8 | −3.06 | −40.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 19 | 32 | −2.50 | −16.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 19 | 35 | +9.15 | +37.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −1.80 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 5 | 8 | −3.06 | −40.8% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 25 | −0.84 | −14.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 10 | +4.41 | +81.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 5 | 7 | −1.67 | −21.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 25 | +4.74 | +25.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 1 | −1.80 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Cardiff · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.57 | +1.57 |
| M2 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home18 Aug 2024 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +2.99 |
| M3 | Burnley · Home24 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +4.54 |
| M4 | Portsmouth · Away31 Aug 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.30 | +5.84 |
| M5 | Plymouth · Away14 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.94 | +3.89 |
| M6 | Middlesbrough · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.64 | +5.53 |
| M7 | Watford · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.53 | +4.00 |
| M8 | Derby · Home1 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.00 | +5.00 |
| M9 | Leeds · Home4 Oct 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.20 | +4.80 |
| M10 | Hull · Away20 Oct 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.54 | +6.34 |
| M11 | Luton · Away23 Oct 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.69 | +8.03 |
| M12 | Oxford · Home26 Oct 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.96 | +8.99 |
| M13 | Queens Park Rangers · Away2 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.68 | +8.31 |
| M14 | Preston · Away6 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.35 | +7.96 |
| M15 | Coventry · Home9 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.59 | +7.36 |
| M16 | Millwall · Away23 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | +7.29 |
| M17 | West Bromwich Albion · Home26 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.60 | +6.69 |
| M18 | Sheffield United · Away29 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.03 | +5.66 |
| M19 | Stoke · Home7 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.09 | +6.75 |
| M20 | Bristol City · Home10 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.76 | +5.99 |
| M21 | Swansea · Away14 Dec 2024 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.62 | +7.61 |
| M22 | Norwich · Home21 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.23 | +8.84 |
| M23 | Blackburn · Away26 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.44 | +8.40 |
| M24 | Stoke · Away29 Dec 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | +6.82 |
| M25 | Sheffield United · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.34 | +8.16 |
| M26 | Portsmouth · Home5 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.88 | +9.04 |
| M27 | Burnley · Away17 Jan 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.12 | +8.92 |
| M28 | Derby · Away21 Jan 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.26 | +10.17 |
| M29 | Plymouth · Home25 Jan 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.47 | +8.70 |
| M30 | Middlesbrough · Away3 Feb 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.62 | +10.32 |
| M31 | Watford · Home8 Feb 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.16 | +9.16 |
| M32 | Luton · Home12 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.84 | +10.01 |
| M33 | Leeds · Away17 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.70 | +9.31 |
| M34 | Hull · Home22 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.02 | +7.29 |
| M35 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away28 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.63 | +8.92 |
| M36 | Cardiff · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.91 | +9.83 |
| M37 | Preston · Home11 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.01 | +8.82 |
| M38 | Coventry · Away15 Mar 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.40 | +7.42 |
| M39 | Millwall · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.03 | +8.44 |
| M40 | West Bromwich Albion · Away5 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +10.28 |
| M41 | Norwich · Away8 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.17 | +10.11 |
| M42 | Swansea · Home12 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.82 | +8.29 |
| M43 | Bristol City · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.18 | +7.11 |
| M44 | Blackburn · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.58 | +5.53 |
| M45 | Oxford · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.60 | +3.93 |
| M46 | Queens Park Rangers · Home3 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −2.15 | +1.79 |
| Total | 76 | +1.79 | |||