Points
61Points expected by the market
61.55Gap
−0.55Yield
−5.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 24 | +6.12 | +34.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 26 | −6.74 | −27.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 12 | 11 | +0.07 | +5.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 21 | +5.00 | +29.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 15 | −2.27 | −20.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.94 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.12 | +75.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 11 | −4.46 | −33.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 11 | +2.01 | +26.6% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Middlesbrough · Away10 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| M2 | Preston · Home17 Aug 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.29 | +0.47 |
| M3 | Cardiff · Home25 Aug 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.23 |
| M4 | West Bromwich Albion · Away31 Aug 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.96 | −1.18 |
| M5 | Norwich · Home14 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +0.34 |
| M6 | Coventry · Away21 Sep 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.00 | +2.34 |
| M7 | Bristol City · Home29 Sep 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | +1.89 |
| M8 | Sheffield United · Away2 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.87 | +1.02 |
| M9 | Stoke · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.49 |
| M10 | Blackburn · Away19 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.12 | −0.63 |
| M11 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away22 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.68 |
| M12 | Millwall · Home26 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.44 | −2.12 |
| M13 | Oxford · Away2 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.50 | −0.62 |
| M14 | Watford · Home5 Nov 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +0.65 |
| M15 | Burnley · Away10 Nov 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.99 | −0.34 |
| M16 | Leeds · Home24 Nov 2024 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.93 | −1.27 |
| M17 | Derby · Away27 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.71 | +0.44 |
| M18 | Portsmouth · Home30 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.81 | −0.37 |
| M19 | Luton · Away7 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.57 |
| M20 | Plymouth · Away10 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.12 | +0.55 |
| M21 | Sunderland · Home14 Dec 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.33 | −0.77 |
| M22 | Hull · Away21 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −2.03 |
| M23 | Queens Park Rangers · Home26 Dec 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.21 | −0.82 |
| M24 | Luton · Home29 Dec 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.31 | +0.50 |
| M25 | Portsmouth · Away1 Jan 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −1.56 | −1.07 |
| M26 | West Bromwich Albion · Home4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.52 | −1.59 |
| M27 | Cardiff · Away18 Jan 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.35 | −2.94 |
| M28 | Sheffield United · Home21 Jan 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.37 | −4.31 |
| M29 | Norwich · Away25 Jan 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.09 | −5.40 |
| M30 | Coventry · Home1 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.35 | −6.75 |
| M31 | Bristol City · Away9 Feb 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.09 | −4.65 |
| M32 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home12 Feb 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −6.01 |
| M33 | Stoke · Away15 Feb 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.24 | −7.24 |
| M34 | Blackburn · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.46 | −5.79 |
| M35 | Preston · Away4 Mar 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.23 | −6.02 |
| M36 | Middlesbrough · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.65 | −4.36 |
| M37 | Watford · Away12 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.21 | −5.57 |
| M38 | Burnley · Home15 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.01 | −6.58 |
| M39 | Leeds · Away29 Mar 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.60 | −5.98 |
| M40 | Derby · Home5 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.37 | −4.61 |
| M41 | Plymouth · Home9 Apr 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.07 | −3.54 |
| M42 | Sunderland · Away12 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.09 | −1.46 |
| M43 | Hull · Home18 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.44 | −0.02 |
| M44 | Queens Park Rangers · Away21 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.65 | +1.64 |
| M45 | Millwall · Away26 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.16 | +0.48 |
| M46 | Oxford · Home3 May 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −1.03 | −0.55 |
| Total | 61 | −0.55 | |||