Points
64Points expected by the market
68.25Gap
−4.25Yield
−31.2%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | +39.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 30 | −0.70 | −14.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 23 | 28 | −2.90 | −31.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 3 | −1.41 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | +39.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 26 | +0.67 | −9.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 12 | +0.68 | −3.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 4 | −1.37 | −36.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 16 | −3.58 | −47.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 5 | 3 | −1.41 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Queens Park Rangers · Away10 Aug 2024 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.66 | +1.66 |
| M2 | Leeds · Home17 Aug 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.09 | +1.56 |
| M3 | Stoke · Away24 Aug 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.68 | +3.25 |
| M4 | Swansea · Home31 Aug 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.22 | +4.47 |
| M5 | Portsmouth · Away15 Sep 2024 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.23 | +5.70 |
| M6 | Plymouth · Home21 Sep 2024 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.76 | +6.46 |
| M7 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away28 Sep 2024 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.41 | +5.05 |
| M8 | Middlesbrough · Home1 Oct 2024 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.49 | +3.56 |
| M9 | Millwall · Home5 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.81 | +2.75 |
| M10 | Oxford · Away19 Oct 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.71 | +2.04 |
| M11 | Blackburn · Away23 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.35 | +1.69 |
| M12 | Cardiff · Home26 Oct 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.79 | +0.90 |
| M13 | Luton · Away1 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.57 |
| M14 | Burnley · Home7 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.11 |
| M15 | Hull · Away10 Nov 2024 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.54 | +1.64 |
| M16 | Norwich · Home23 Nov 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.78 | +0.86 |
| M17 | Sunderland · Away26 Nov 2024 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.75 |
| M18 | Preston · Away30 Nov 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.26 |
| M19 | Sheffield United · Home8 Dec 2024 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.22 |
| M20 | Coventry · Home11 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.55 | +1.32 |
| M21 | Watford · Away15 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | +0.02 |
| M22 | Bristol City · Home22 Dec 2024 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +1.43 |
| M23 | Derby · Away26 Dec 2024 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | +0.03 |
| M24 | Sheffield United · Away29 Dec 2024 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | 0.00 |
| M25 | Preston · Home1 Jan 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.25 | +1.26 |
| M26 | Swansea · Away4 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.19 | +1.07 |
| M27 | Stoke · Home18 Jan 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.75 | +0.32 |
| M28 | Middlesbrough · Away21 Jan 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.98 | −0.65 |
| M29 | Portsmouth · Home25 Jan 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.97 | +0.32 |
| M30 | Plymouth · Away1 Feb 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.89 | −1.57 |
| M31 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home8 Feb 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.37 | −0.21 |
| M32 | Blackburn · Home12 Feb 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.79 | −2.00 |
| M33 | Millwall · Away15 Feb 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | −2.33 |
| M34 | Oxford · Home22 Feb 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.04 | −1.29 |
| M35 | Leeds · Away1 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.78 |
| M36 | Queens Park Rangers · Home8 Mar 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.13 | +0.34 |
| M37 | Burnley · Away11 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.51 |
| M38 | Hull · Home15 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.78 | −0.28 |
| M39 | Norwich · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.08 | −1.36 |
| M40 | Sunderland · Home5 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.54 | −2.90 |
| M41 | Bristol City · Away8 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.27 | −4.18 |
| M42 | Watford · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.11 | −3.06 |
| M43 | Coventry · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −4.20 |
| M44 | Derby · Home21 Apr 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.73 | −5.92 |
| M45 | Cardiff · Away26 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.13 | −6.05 |
| M46 | Luton · Home3 May 2025 | W 5-3 | 3 | +1.80 | −4.25 |
| Total | 64 | −4.25 | |||