Points
64Points expected by the market
73.18Gap
−9.18Yield
−28.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 3 | 7 | +0.50 | −3.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 20 | 39 | +2.32 | −1.8% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 22 | 18 | −11.25 | −53.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.74 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 4 | −0.30 | −26.5% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 17 | 35 | +3.34 | +3.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 5 | −0.55 | −34.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.80 | +42.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 4 | −1.02 | −32.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 18 | 13 | −10.70 | −57.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.74 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Ipswich · Home8 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| M2 | Blackburn · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.49 | +1.08 |
| M3 | Oxford · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.85 | +1.93 |
| M4 | Leicester · Away29 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.29 | +0.65 |
| M5 | Stoke · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.44 | −0.79 |
| M6 | Swansea · Home20 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.30 | +0.51 |
| M7 | Coventry · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.09 | −0.58 |
| M8 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home30 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −1.16 | −1.73 |
| M9 | Wrexham · Away3 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.40 | −2.14 |
| M10 | Hull · Home18 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.84 | −3.97 |
| M11 | Preston · Away21 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.59 | −2.39 |
| M12 | Bristol City · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.13 | −3.51 |
| M13 | Portsmouth · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.01 | −2.51 |
| M14 | Millwall · Home4 Nov 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.12 | −1.38 |
| M15 | Middlesbrough · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.26 | −2.64 |
| M16 | Norwich · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +1.07 | −1.57 |
| M17 | West Bromwich Albion · Away26 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.41 | −1.98 |
| M18 | Watford · Home1 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.16 | −0.83 |
| M19 | Southampton · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.20 | −2.03 |
| M20 | Queens Park Rangers · Away9 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.44 | −3.47 |
| M21 | Charlton · Home13 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.08 | −4.55 |
| M22 | Sheffield United · Away20 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.21 | −5.76 |
| M23 | Derby · Home26 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.75 | −6.51 |
| M24 | Southampton · Home29 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | −6.98 |
| M25 | Watford · Away1 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.17 | −8.15 |
| M26 | Coventry · Home4 Jan 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.64 | −6.50 |
| M27 | Swansea · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.36 | −6.86 |
| M28 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away20 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.80 | −6.06 |
| M29 | Stoke · Home24 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | −6.94 |
| M30 | Oxford · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.34 | −5.61 |
| M31 | Leicester · Home7 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.09 | −4.52 |
| M32 | West Bromwich Albion · Home10 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.90 | −5.43 |
| M33 | Norwich · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | −3.75 |
| M34 | Millwall · Away25 Feb 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.34 | −5.09 |
| M35 | Middlesbrough · Home2 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.33 | −6.42 |
| M36 | Charlton · Away7 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.68 | −8.10 |
| M37 | Queens Park Rangers · Home11 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | −7.04 |
| M38 | Sheffield United · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.64 | −7.67 |
| M39 | Derby · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.40 | −9.08 |
| M40 | Blackburn · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.89 | −10.96 |
| M41 | Ipswich · Away6 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.74 | −11.70 |
| M42 | Wrexham · Home12 Apr 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.37 | −10.33 |
| M43 | Hull · Away18 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.31 | −10.64 |
| M44 | Preston · Home22 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.94 | −9.70 |
| M45 | Bristol City · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.19 | −8.51 |
| M46 | Portsmouth · Away2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | −9.18 |
| Total | 64 | −9.18 | |||