Points
52Points expected by the market
58.91Gap
−6.91Yield
−9.9%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.68 | +33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 7 | −6.61 | −74.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 26 | −5.70 | −12.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 16 | +4.72 | +31.8% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.68 | +33.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 7 | 6 | −5.73 | −70.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 9 | −8.03 | −56.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 3 | 3 | +0.09 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.88 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 17 | +2.33 | +30.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 13 | +4.63 | +71.4% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | West Bromwich Albion · Away9 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.94 | −0.94 |
| M2 | Birmingham · Home16 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.19 | −2.13 |
| M3 | Hull · Away23 Aug 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.81 | −0.32 |
| M4 | Norwich · Home30 Aug 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.56 | −1.89 |
| M5 | Watford · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.75 | −0.14 |
| M6 | Charlton · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.18 | −1.31 |
| M7 | Swansea · Home30 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.44 | −2.76 |
| M8 | Stoke · Home4 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.44 | −3.19 |
| M9 | Coventry · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.65 | −3.85 |
| M10 | Sheffield United · Home21 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.40 | −5.25 |
| M11 | Southampton · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.77 | −3.48 |
| M12 | Leicester · Away1 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.13 | −1.36 |
| M13 | Bristol City · Away4 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.83 | +0.48 |
| M14 | Derby · Home8 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.65 | −1.17 |
| M15 | Preston · Away21 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.75 | +0.58 |
| M16 | Queens Park Rangers · Home26 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.51 | −0.93 |
| M17 | Wrexham · Away29 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.18 | −1.11 |
| M18 | Ipswich · Home2 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −1.14 |
| M19 | Oxford · Home9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | −2.01 |
| M20 | Portsmouth · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.42 | −3.43 |
| M21 | Millwall · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.46 | −1.97 |
| M22 | Middlesbrough · Away26 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.15 | −1.82 |
| M23 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away29 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.88 | −2.70 |
| M24 | Wrexham · Home1 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.70 | −4.40 |
| M25 | Charlton · Home4 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.65 | −5.06 |
| M26 | Ipswich · Away17 Jan 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.65 | −5.70 |
| M27 | Swansea · Away20 Jan 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −6.60 |
| M28 | Watford · Home24 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.61 | −7.21 |
| M29 | Hull · Home31 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.56 | −8.77 |
| M30 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home3 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.68 | −8.08 |
| M31 | Norwich · Away7 Feb 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.13 | −9.22 |
| M32 | Queens Park Rangers · Away14 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.88 | −7.34 |
| M33 | Preston · Home20 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.36 | −5.98 |
| M34 | Bristol City · Home24 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.48 | −7.46 |
| M35 | Derby · Away28 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.09 | −8.55 |
| M36 | Portsmouth · Home7 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.38 | −8.94 |
| M37 | Oxford · Away11 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.34 | −10.27 |
| M38 | Millwall · Away14 Mar 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.05 | −8.23 |
| M39 | Middlesbrough · Home21 Mar 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.06 | −8.16 |
| M40 | Birmingham · Away3 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.15 | −6.02 |
| M41 | West Bromwich Albion · Home6 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.29 | −6.31 |
| M42 | Stoke · Away11 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −6.66 |
| M43 | Southampton · Away14 Apr 2026 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.64 | −7.31 |
| M44 | Coventry · Home17 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.06 | −7.25 |
| M45 | Sheffield United · Away22 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.95 | −5.30 |
| M46 | Leicester · Home2 May 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.61 | −6.91 |
| Total | 52 | −6.91 | |||