Points
62Points expected by the market
63.73Gap
−1.73Yield
−6.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.55 | +23.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 20 | −2.79 | −11.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 31 | −0.91 | −9.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 8 | +1.43 | +6.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.55 | +23.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 17 | −4.08 | −20.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 11 | −2.81 | −23.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.28 | +95.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 20 | +1.90 | +1.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 8 | +1.43 | +6.5% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Sheffield United · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +2.18 | +2.18 |
| M2 | Charlton · Home16 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.73 | +1.45 |
| M3 | Derby · Away22 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.99 |
| M4 | Hull · Home30 Aug 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.22 | +2.21 |
| M5 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away13 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +3.50 |
| M6 | Oxford · Home21 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −2.02 | +1.47 |
| M7 | Preston · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.35 | +1.13 |
| M8 | Ipswich · Home30 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.82 |
| M9 | Queens Park Rangers · Home4 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.80 | −0.98 |
| M10 | Norwich · Away18 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.70 | +0.72 |
| M11 | Southampton · Home21 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.58 | +2.30 |
| M12 | Birmingham · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +3.71 |
| M13 | Stoke · Away1 Nov 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.24 | +2.47 |
| M14 | Blackburn · Home4 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.55 | +0.93 |
| M15 | Watford · Away7 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.84 |
| M16 | Swansea · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +2.12 |
| M17 | Wrexham · Away26 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.28 | +0.85 |
| M18 | Portsmouth · Away29 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | +2.45 |
| M19 | Millwall · Home6 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.67 | +0.79 |
| M20 | Leicester · Home10 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.17 |
| M21 | Coventry · Away13 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.75 | −0.59 |
| M22 | Middlesbrough · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.69 | +1.10 |
| M23 | West Bromwich Albion · Away26 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.93 | +3.03 |
| M24 | Millwall · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | +1.80 |
| M25 | Portsmouth · Home1 Jan 2026 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.02 | +2.82 |
| M26 | Preston · Home4 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.81 | +1.01 |
| M27 | Oxford · Away17 Jan 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.45 |
| M28 | Ipswich · Away20 Jan 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.77 | −0.32 |
| M29 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home24 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.55 | +0.23 |
| M30 | Derby · Home30 Jan 2026 | L 0-5 | 0 | −1.70 | −1.47 |
| M31 | Hull · Away7 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.71 | +0.24 |
| M32 | Wrexham · Home17 Feb 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.34 |
| M33 | Swansea · Away21 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.05 | −1.39 |
| M34 | Blackburn · Away24 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.78 | +0.39 |
| M35 | Watford · Home27 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.46 | −1.07 |
| M36 | Coventry · Home7 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.09 | −2.16 |
| M37 | Leicester · Away10 Mar 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.25 | −3.41 |
| M38 | Middlesbrough · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.39 | −3.02 |
| M39 | West Bromwich Albion · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.35 | −4.37 |
| M40 | Charlton · Away3 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.76 | −2.61 |
| M41 | Sheffield United · Home6 Apr 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | −1.00 |
| M42 | Queens Park Rangers · Away11 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.21 | −1.21 |
| M43 | Norwich · Home18 Apr 2026 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.31 | −2.52 |
| M44 | Southampton · Away21 Apr 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | +0.44 | −2.08 |
| M45 | Birmingham · Away25 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −3.02 |
| M46 | Stoke · Home2 May 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.30 | −1.73 |
| Total | 62 | −1.73 | |||