Points
53Points expected by the market
54.27Gap
−1.27Yield
+4.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 8 | +0.99 | −7.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 24 | 20 | −11.68 | −46.2% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 18 | 25 | +9.42 | +73.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 3 | 7 | +1.74 | +23.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 17 | −4.70 | −19.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 7 | +3.15 | +83.5% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 1 | −0.75 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 3 | −6.98 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 14 | 18 | +6.27 | +70.7% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Watford · Home9 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.46 | +1.46 |
| M2 | Bristol City · Away16 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.46 |
| M3 | Leicester · Home23 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.26 | +0.20 |
| M4 | Queens Park Rangers · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.54 | −1.34 |
| M5 | Millwall · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.47 | −1.81 |
| M6 | Sheffield United · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.09 | +0.28 |
| M7 | Blackburn · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.47 | +1.75 |
| M8 | Derby · Away30 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | +1.41 |
| M9 | Preston · Away4 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.32 | +0.09 |
| M10 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.04 | +1.13 |
| M11 | Ipswich · Away21 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +2.27 | +3.40 |
| M12 | Hull · Away25 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.25 | +3.16 |
| M13 | Swansea · Home1 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.63 | +2.52 |
| M14 | West Bromwich Albion · Home4 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.61 | +4.13 |
| M15 | Wrexham · Away8 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.12 | +3.01 |
| M16 | Southampton · Home22 Nov 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.32 | +1.69 |
| M17 | Stoke · Away25 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.95 | +0.75 |
| M18 | Coventry · Away29 Nov 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.62 | +0.13 |
| M19 | Middlesbrough · Home9 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −1.11 |
| M20 | Birmingham · Away13 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.80 |
| M21 | Oxford · Home20 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.33 | +0.53 |
| M22 | Norwich · Away26 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.08 | −0.55 |
| M23 | Portsmouth · Away29 Dec 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −1.75 |
| M24 | Coventry · Home1 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.05 | −1.80 |
| M25 | Blackburn · Away4 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.05 | −1.85 |
| M26 | Sheffield United · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.96 | +0.11 |
| M27 | Derby · Home20 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.40 | −1.29 |
| M28 | Millwall · Away24 Jan 2026 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.84 | −2.13 |
| M29 | Leicester · Away31 Jan 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +2.04 | −0.09 |
| M30 | Queens Park Rangers · Home6 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.37 |
| M31 | Stoke · Home11 Feb 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.66 | +1.30 |
| M32 | Portsmouth · Home17 Feb 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.37 | −0.07 |
| M33 | Southampton · Away21 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.23 |
| M34 | West Bromwich Albion · Away24 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.30 |
| M35 | Wrexham · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.17 | −0.87 |
| M36 | Birmingham · Home7 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.96 | +1.09 |
| M37 | Middlesbrough · Away11 Mar 2026 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.54 | +3.64 |
| M38 | Oxford · Away14 Mar 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.13 | +3.50 |
| M39 | Norwich · Home21 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.16 | +2.34 |
| M40 | Bristol City · Home3 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.46 | +0.88 |
| M41 | Watford · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.89 |
| M42 | Preston · Home11 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | −0.66 |
| M43 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away18 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.75 | −1.41 |
| M44 | Ipswich · Home22 Apr 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.72 | −2.13 |
| M45 | Hull · Home25 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.77 | −0.35 |
| M46 | Swansea · Away2 May 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.92 | −1.27 |
| Total | 53 | −1.27 | |||