Points
95Points expected by the market
81.24Gap
+13.76Yield
+13.3%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 14 | +0.65 | −3.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 30 | 64 | +9.90 | +14.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 17 | +3.20 | +20.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 6 | 14 | +0.65 | −3.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 38 | +9.28 | +34.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 2 | 3 | −0.05 | +13.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 15 | 26 | +0.62 | −6.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 14 | +3.26 | +22.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Hull · Home9 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| M2 | Derby · Away16 Aug 2025 | W 5-3 | 3 | +1.41 | +0.50 |
| M3 | Queens Park Rangers · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 7-1 | 3 | +0.83 | +1.33 |
| M4 | Oxford · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.94 | +0.39 |
| M5 | Norwich · Home13 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.88 | −0.49 |
| M6 | Leicester · Away20 Sep 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.80 |
| M7 | Birmingham · Home27 Sep 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.37 | +0.57 |
| M8 | Millwall · Away1 Oct 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +1.92 |
| M9 | Sheffield Wednesday · Away4 Oct 2025 | W 5-0 | 3 | +1.04 | +2.96 |
| M10 | Blackburn · Home18 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.87 | +3.84 |
| M11 | Portsmouth · Away21 Oct 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.32 | +5.15 |
| M12 | Watford · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.94 | +6.10 |
| M13 | Wrexham · Away31 Oct 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.56 | +4.54 |
| M14 | Sheffield United · Home4 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.06 | +5.60 |
| M15 | Stoke · Away8 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.49 | +7.09 |
| M16 | West Bromwich Albion · Home22 Nov 2025 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.22 | +8.32 |
| M17 | Middlesbrough · Away25 Nov 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.60 | +9.92 |
| M18 | Charlton · Home29 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.83 | +10.75 |
| M19 | Ipswich · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.10 | +9.65 |
| M20 | Preston · Away9 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.65 | +9.01 |
| M21 | Bristol City · Home13 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +9.97 |
| M22 | Southampton · Away20 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | +9.70 |
| M23 | Swansea · Home26 Dec 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.95 | +10.65 |
| M24 | Ipswich · Home29 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.53 | +9.12 |
| M25 | Charlton · Away1 Jan 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | +8.44 |
| M26 | Birmingham · Away4 Jan 2026 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.37 | +7.07 |
| M27 | Leicester · Home17 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.99 | +8.05 |
| M28 | Millwall · Home20 Jan 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.19 | +9.24 |
| M29 | Norwich · Away26 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.55 | +7.69 |
| M30 | Queens Park Rangers · Away31 Jan 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.70 | +5.99 |
| M31 | Oxford · Home7 Feb 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.15 | +4.85 |
| M32 | Middlesbrough · Home16 Feb 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.48 | +6.33 |
| M33 | West Bromwich Albion · Away21 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.34 | +7.66 |
| M34 | Sheffield United · Away25 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.70 | +9.36 |
| M35 | Stoke · Home28 Feb 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.92 | +10.28 |
| M36 | Bristol City · Away7 Mar 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +11.63 |
| M37 | Preston · Home11 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.87 | +12.50 |
| M38 | Southampton · Home14 Mar 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.75 | +10.75 |
| M39 | Swansea · Away21 Mar 2026 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +12.18 |
| M40 | Derby · Home3 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.00 | +13.18 |
| M41 | Hull · Away6 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.76 | +12.42 |
| M42 | Sheffield Wednesday · Home11 Apr 2026 | D 0-0 | 1 | −1.61 | +10.82 |
| M43 | Blackburn · Away17 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.78 | +10.03 |
| M44 | Portsmouth · Home21 Apr 2026 | W 5-1 | 3 | +0.93 | +10.97 |
| M45 | Wrexham · Home26 Apr 2026 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.27 | +12.24 |
| M46 | Watford · Away2 May 2026 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.52 | +13.76 |
| Total | 95 | +13.76 | |||