ESEN
← Championship 2025-26

Derby

Season 2025-26 · 46 matches played

Last 5LWLWL

Points

69

Points expected by the market

58.67

Gap

+10.33

Yield

+23.5%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.

M1M5M10M15M20M25M30M35M40M45

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds bandMatches playedMPPointsPtsExpectedGapYield
Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches 1 3 2.40 +0.60 +26.0%
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 7 16 11.86 +4.14 +43.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49 21 29 27.89 +1.11 +3.0%
Underdog 3.50 or more 17 21 16.53 +4.47 +40.6%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

MOpponentDateResultRes. Odds to winExpectedPointsPtsGap Running total€1 bet
M1 Stoke · Away9 Aug 2025 9 Aug 2025 L 1-3 3.80 1.04 0 −1.04 −1.04 −€1.00
M2 Coventry · Home16 Aug 2025 16 Aug 2025 L 3-5 3.48 1.11 0 −1.11 −2.15 −€1.00
M3 Bristol City · Home22 Aug 2025 22 Aug 2025 D 1-1 3.04 1.24 1 −0.24 −2.39 −€1.00
M4 Ipswich · Away30 Aug 2025 30 Aug 2025 D 2-2 6.64 0.67 1 +0.33 −2.06 −€1.00
M5 West Bromwich Albion · Away13 Sep 2025 13 Sep 2025 W 1-0 4.93 0.85 3 +2.15 +0.09 +€3.93
M6 Preston · Home20 Sep 2025 20 Sep 2025 L 0-1 2.33 1.52 0 −1.52 −1.43 −€1.00
M7 Wrexham · Away27 Sep 2025 27 Sep 2025 D 1-1 3.53 1.08 1 −0.08 −1.51 −€1.00
M8 Charlton · Home30 Sep 2025 30 Sep 2025 D 1-1 2.72 1.35 1 −0.35 −1.85 −€1.00
M9 Southampton · Home4 Oct 2025 4 Oct 2025 D 1-1 3.46 1.10 1 −0.10 −1.96 −€1.00
M10 Oxford · Away18 Oct 2025 18 Oct 2025 L 0-1 2.90 1.28 0 −1.28 −3.24 −€1.00
M11 Norwich · Home21 Oct 2025 21 Oct 2025 W 1-0 2.29 1.52 3 +1.48 −1.76 +€1.29
M12 Queens Park Rangers · Home25 Oct 2025 25 Oct 2025 W 1-0 2.71 1.33 3 +1.67 −0.09 +€1.71
M13 Sheffield United · Away1 Nov 2025 1 Nov 2025 W 3-1 4.62 0.89 3 +2.11 +2.02 +€3.62
M14 Hull · Home4 Nov 2025 4 Nov 2025 W 2-1 2.12 1.61 3 +1.39 +3.41 +€1.12
M15 Blackburn · Away8 Nov 2025 8 Nov 2025 W 2-1 3.57 1.07 3 +1.93 +5.34 +€2.57
M16 Watford · Home22 Nov 2025 22 Nov 2025 L 2-3 2.43 1.46 0 −1.46 +3.87 −€1.00
M17 Swansea · Away25 Nov 2025 25 Nov 2025 W 2-1 3.52 1.11 3 +1.89 +5.77 +€2.52
M18 Middlesbrough · Away29 Nov 2025 29 Nov 2025 L 1-2 3.91 1.00 0 −1.00 +4.77 −€1.00
M19 Leicester · Home6 Dec 2025 6 Dec 2025 L 1-3 2.67 1.36 0 −1.36 +3.41 −€1.00
M20 Millwall · Home10 Dec 2025 10 Dec 2025 D 1-1 2.69 1.37 1 −0.37 +3.04 −€1.00
M21 Sheffield Wednesday · Away15 Dec 2025 15 Dec 2025 W 3-0 2.11 1.63 3 +1.37 +4.41 +€1.11
M22 Portsmouth · Home20 Dec 2025 20 Dec 2025 D 1-1 1.98 1.71 1 −0.71 +3.70 −€1.00
M23 Birmingham · Away26 Dec 2025 26 Dec 2025 D 1-1 4.07 0.97 1 +0.03 +3.73 −€1.00
M24 Leicester · Away29 Dec 2025 29 Dec 2025 L 1-2 3.60 1.07 0 −1.07 +2.66 −€1.00
M25 Middlesbrough · Home1 Jan 2026 1 Jan 2026 W 1-0 2.96 1.24 3 +1.76 +4.42 +€1.96
M26 Wrexham · Home4 Jan 2026 4 Jan 2026 L 1-2 2.23 1.57 0 −1.57 +2.85 −€1.00
M27 Preston · Away17 Jan 2026 17 Jan 2026 W 1-0 3.32 1.15 3 +1.85 +4.69 +€2.32
M28 Charlton · Away20 Jan 2026 20 Jan 2026 W 2-1 2.90 1.28 3 +1.72 +6.41 +€1.90
M29 West Bromwich Albion · Home23 Jan 2026 23 Jan 2026 D 1-1 2.62 1.37 1 −0.37 +6.04 −€1.00
M30 Bristol City · Away30 Jan 2026 30 Jan 2026 W 5-0 3.75 1.03 3 +1.97 +8.01 +€2.75
M31 Ipswich · Home7 Feb 2026 7 Feb 2026 L 1-2 3.86 1.01 0 −1.01 +7.00 −€1.00
M32 Swansea · Home14 Feb 2026 14 Feb 2026 W 2-0 2.47 1.44 3 +1.56 +8.57 +€1.47
M33 Watford · Away21 Feb 2026 21 Feb 2026 L 0-2 3.57 1.07 0 −1.07 +7.50 −€1.00
M34 Hull · Away24 Feb 2026 24 Feb 2026 L 2-4 3.04 1.21 0 −1.21 +6.30 −€1.00
M35 Blackburn · Home28 Feb 2026 28 Feb 2026 W 3-1 2.11 1.62 3 +1.38 +7.68 +€1.11
M36 Sheffield Wednesday · Home7 Mar 2026 7 Mar 2026 W 2-1 1.26 2.40 3 +0.60 +8.28 +€0.26
M37 Millwall · Away10 Mar 2026 10 Mar 2026 L 0-1 3.71 1.03 0 −1.03 +7.24 −€1.00
M38 Portsmouth · Away16 Mar 2026 16 Mar 2026 W 1-0 3.52 1.09 3 +1.91 +9.16 +€2.52
M39 Birmingham · Home21 Mar 2026 21 Mar 2026 W 1-0 2.71 1.32 3 +1.68 +10.84 +€1.71
M40 Coventry · Away3 Apr 2026 3 Apr 2026 L 2-3 5.24 0.77 0 −0.77 +10.07 −€1.00
M41 Stoke · Home6 Apr 2026 6 Apr 2026 W 2-0 1.71 1.89 3 +1.11 +11.18 +€0.71
M42 Southampton · Away11 Apr 2026 11 Apr 2026 L 1-2 5.11 0.79 0 −0.79 +10.39 −€1.00
M43 Oxford · Home18 Apr 2026 18 Apr 2026 W 1-0 1.96 1.71 3 +1.29 +11.68 +€0.96
M44 Norwich · Away21 Apr 2026 21 Apr 2026 L 1-2 3.21 1.15 0 −1.15 +10.53 −€1.00
M45 Queens Park Rangers · Away25 Apr 2026 25 Apr 2026 W 3-2 2.26 1.52 3 +1.48 +12.01 +€1.26
M46 Sheffield United · Home2 May 2026 2 May 2026 L 1-2 1.96 1.68 0 −1.68 +10.33 −€1.00
Total 58.67 69 +10.33 +€10.80